Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: AEX25, BEL20 and CAC40 have reversed downtrends but Strength and Sentiment Indicator haven't yet confirmed it. But if buyers can stay in control previous peaks are in sight
AEX25 is back above 55 daily MA and the resistance at around 747.50 currently testing the 0.618 retracement.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment and must close above 60 to reverse that. But if AEX closes above 748 the Index is in an uptrend that could take the Index to test the upper Cloud span A. A close above is likely to push AEX higher towards February peak at around. 777.
But if RSI is rejected at 60 threshold AEX could experience a set back down to around 730. IF closing below 727 bear trend is resumed with support at around 712.
BEL20 is testing 0.618 retracement and the lower part of the Cloud – Span B at 3,795. RSI is still in negative sentiment suggesting we could see a correction in BEL20 from current levels possibly down to around 3,700.
But the short-term trend is up and if BEL20 closes above 55 daily MA and RSI closes above 60 it will give the uptrend further energy. BEL20 could test January peak at around 3,792.
However, if BEL20 closes back below 3,690 downtrend is likely to resume.
CAC40 is back above the Cloud testing 0.786 retracement and RSI is still showing negative sentiment. RSI must to close above 60 to reverse that. However, the short-term trend is up and CAC 40 could very well test all-time high once again.
If CAC40 closes above all-time highs at around 7,491 there is potential up to around 7,632.
However, if CAC40 slides back below 55 daily SMA and RSI is being rejected at 60 threshold bear trend is likely to resume.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.