Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
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Novo Nordisk's obesity drug CagriSema falls short against Eli Lilly's
Oskar Barner Bernhardtsen
Investment strategist
Novo Nordisk’s share price is once again taking a sharp dive following another major disappointment. The REDEFINE 4 trial is one of the follow-up studies to the disappointing REDEFINE 1 trial from last December, which marked the beginning of the company’s recent downturn.
The REDEFINE trials focus on the potential Wegovy successor, CagriSema. The newly released REDEFINE 4 study compares the effectiveness of CagriSema with tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Eli Lilly’s current alternative to Wegovy, Zepbound.
This study was crucial for Novo Nordisk, as it was meant to show whether CagriSema could outperform existing weight-loss treatments on the market. A strong result would have suggested that Novo Nordisk might be able to take market share from Eli Lilly. That now appears significantly more difficult than investors had hoped.
Novo Nordisk’s press release clearly explains why today’s announcement has led to a sharp drop in the share price. Patients treated with CagriSema achieved an average weight loss of 23% over 84 weeks, while patients on tirzepatide reached 25.5%.
A difference of 2.5 percentage points may not sound dramatic, but given that Eli Lilly already has tirzepatide/Zepbound on the market, it is challenging to position a potential new product like CagriSema as equally good or superior. This undermines expectations for Novo Nordisk’s future revenue potential and also helps explain why Eli Lilly’s shares are up around 4% in pre-market trading in the United States.
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