Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Nasdaq testing October lows
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: The Nasdaq 100 index is a short- and medium-term downtrend as bulls depart the US tech sector.
Last night's massive sell-off in the Nasdaq 100 seems to be continuing apace today. The Nasdaq 100 future represented by the Saxo CFD is currently testing its October lows at around 6,573; the Nasdaq 100 is headed towards support at around 6.300-6.250
Yesterday's rout saw the Relative Strength Index break its short-term rising trend (as discussed in my monthly technical analysis webinar last week), and is likely to continue the bearish scenario despite divergence.
It's possible that we will not see any rebound before speculators prepare for a small Santa Claus rally .
We are in a de facto downtrend in the short and medium terms. There is not much hope for bulls at the moment. As things currently sit, a close above 7,200(!) is needed for the Nasdaq 100 to reverse the trend. The first warning of a trend reversal would be a close above yesterday’s high at 6,923, but it must be noted that I regard that scenario as unlikely.
Yesterday's rout saw the Relative Strength Index break its short-term rising trend (as discussed in my monthly technical analysis webinar last week), and is likely to continue the bearish scenario despite divergence.
It's possible that we will not see any rebound before speculators prepare for a small Santa Claus rally .
We are in a de facto downtrend in the short and medium terms. There is not much hope for bulls at the moment. As things currently sit, a close above 7,200(!) is needed for the Nasdaq 100 to reverse the trend. The first warning of a trend reversal would be a close above yesterday’s high at 6,923, but it must be noted that I regard that scenario as unlikely.
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