background image background image background image

Erns Watch - Nikola [NKLA], is this the Tesla of Electric Trucks?

Equities 8 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Earnings Watch aims to highlight some of the key names that are in heavy rotation on investors' & traders' radars.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Tue Erns Watch - Nikola [NKLA], the future Tesla of electric trucks?

Nikola: $36.49 Last, $13.2bn Mkt Cap, +254% YTD,  P/E NM, 2Q Est. -$0.133 EPS, Rev +$100k

  • So this was flagged to KVP by our Global Sales Trading desk, as being a key name that is in heavy rotation for the trading contingent of our clients. Its KVP’s understanding that this will be Nikola’s first report as a public company & there is a JPM research report excellently titled as “No Pressure or Anything”.

  • And at an expected $100K revenue for 2Q (only one analyst breakdown mind you) & $13.3bn mkt cap, yet with an expected $115m in revenue in 2021… KVP had to let out a giggle or two… not to mention, the name is massively up & obviously with currently hardly any revenue (LTM revenue is zero), there is almost certainly only negative earnings – which should naturally also be the case for something that should be fast growing.

  • The basic premise here from the bulls on the stock is that this is the Tesla of the electric truck universe. The green revolution is a force that cannot be stopped & we are only going to see more social impact & sustainable investment themes across the board.

  • The bears will say if this is correctly valued at $13.2bn with est. 2021 revenue of $115m (from 0 to $115m), so c. 115x Price / Revenue. Then Tesla’s market cap should not be $280bn, but closer to $4.8 trn (i.e. 115x times Tesla 2021 Est. Revenue of $42bn) & that without the Elon Premium!

  • Also for context, if you check out BYND: Erns Watch - Beyond Meat, Alternative Protein Theme & Macro Sins which is also set for results after the market close today, its trading at a lower market cap of $8.5bn to Nikola’s $13.2bn – yet BYND is set to make profits this year & end up with revenue of +$464m, not to mention 2022 earnings growth of c. +300% (post an expected +2200% earnings growth for 2020).

  • Worth noting, not a lot of analysts following this name – so take this with a truck-load of salt as we have four data points for consensus skew: Analysts have a c. 50% buys in the name, vs. 50% sells.

  • The 12m consensus price target is c. $56 in-line which is +53% above the last share price of $36.49, with a range of with a range of  $79 to $45, or basically +116% to +23% from the current lvls if the analysts are correct.

  • One has to stretch to 2022, to get any forecasts on earning of +7.3% & +157% top-line growth, after an obviously exponentially ludicrous 2021 top-line growth. Not saying its not achievable, just saying that some serious math – they would ideally need a big corporate partnership.

  • JPM which have an OW on the name (E-2021 price target of 45, c. +23%), expect the focus to be on the customer order book & overall direction of capex, rather than anything too material in regards to actual top-line or bottom-line results – its about magnitude of direction. Worth noting that a company that is clearly in high growth mode, will be going through a lot of cash, so future financing – whilst not necessarily a key focus now – is something to keep on the cards.

  • The name is up c. +254% YTD, with a +241% jump from the Mar lows of $10.35, yet its worth noting at one point this stock hit close to $80 in Jul, so current trough to peak & peak to last has seen a range of +645% to -54%. Clearly this is not for the bingo halls.

  • Link to Nikola’s SEC & Financials

  • Nikola [NKLA] results should be out after the US markets close today


    Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

    This is the way 



    The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

    Please read our disclaimers:
    Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
    Full disclaimer (
    Full disclaimer (

    Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
    Philip Heymans Alle 15

    Contact Saxo

    Select region


    Trade responsibly
    All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

    This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

    Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.