Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Dax remains in an overall downtrend
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: The Dax index appears seems to be have broken its near-horizontal neckline in a shoulder-(dual) head-shoulder formation, demonstrating that its recent recovery doesn't tell the whole story.
I am often asked what the German Dax index will do next. Over the past couple of days, of course, the German benchmark seems to have rebounded in line with most global stock markets after last week’s massive sell-off. But where are we headed now?
There is no such thing as certainty in financial analysis; what we look at are the possibilities. We look to find patterns that might repeat themselves. Taking a closer look at the Dax, and focusing on the time period where the downtrend accelerated this past summer, there seems to be a repeated pattern in place where corrections occur.
Every sell-off is followed by a correction up to around 0.618 or 0.764 retracements. If that pattern repeats itself, we could expect a correction taking DAX up to around 12,075 which is the 0.618 retracement.
Dax daily chart
Here we see a sell-off after a double-top pattern – the right shoulder on the weekly chart – followed by a 0.764 correction. The next sell-off was followed by a 0.618 correction. The next one after that was followed by a 0.764 correction before the most correction.
There is no such thing as certainty in financial analysis; what we look at are the possibilities. We look to find patterns that might repeat themselves. Taking a closer look at the Dax, and focusing on the time period where the downtrend accelerated this past summer, there seems to be a repeated pattern in place where corrections occur.
Every sell-off is followed by a correction up to around 0.618 or 0.764 retracements. If that pattern repeats itself, we could expect a correction taking DAX up to around 12,075 which is the 0.618 retracement.
Dax daily chart
Here we see a sell-off after a double-top pattern – the right shoulder on the weekly chart – followed by a 0.764 correction. The next sell-off was followed by a 0.618 correction. The next one after that was followed by a 0.764 correction before the most correction.
Is it all over, though? Might we even be poised for a year-end rally?
Hardly. Or at least it hardly seems that way when we look at the bigger picture I first discussed a few days ago (and a few weeks ago before that).
Well that’s when we look at the bigger picture I posted a few days ago (and a couple of weeks ago before that).
The Dax seems to be have broken the near-horizontal neckline in a shoulder-(dual) head-shoulder formation. The index broke the neckline last week, finding support at the 200-week moving average and is now trying to crawl back above. This is called a pullback, and pullbacks occur in roughly half of all bearish pattern breakouts.
A correction to 12.075 will take the index back above the neckline, but that doesn’t mean the pattern is broken. We would need a much bigger comeback before saying that.
We can discuss that if and when the Dax breaks 12,500!
The Dax index is in a de facto technical downtrend on the daily and weekly charts, and on the monthly as well. If we close below this week’s low, brace yourself... further downside is very likely.
Hardly. Or at least it hardly seems that way when we look at the bigger picture I first discussed a few days ago (and a few weeks ago before that).
Well that’s when we look at the bigger picture I posted a few days ago (and a couple of weeks ago before that).
The Dax seems to be have broken the near-horizontal neckline in a shoulder-(dual) head-shoulder formation. The index broke the neckline last week, finding support at the 200-week moving average and is now trying to crawl back above. This is called a pullback, and pullbacks occur in roughly half of all bearish pattern breakouts.
A correction to 12.075 will take the index back above the neckline, but that doesn’t mean the pattern is broken. We would need a much bigger comeback before saying that.
We can discuss that if and when the Dax breaks 12,500!
The Dax index is in a de facto technical downtrend on the daily and weekly charts, and on the monthly as well. If we close below this week’s low, brace yourself... further downside is very likely.
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Having created history’s most epic debt bubble, China boldly bets that fiscal stimulus to the tune o...