ChineseAIHeader

Alibaba and Tencent show China’s AI race is cheaper than America’s, not easier

Equities 5 minutes to read
Ruben Dalfovo
Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Key takeaways

  • China’s AI leaders compete on cost and distribution, not on matching United States spending line for line.

  • Alibaba is spending harder on infrastructure, while Tencent is trying to invest without breaking investor trust.

  • Better chip access helps, but monetising agentic AI remains the real test.


Cheap is a lovely word in markets until the bill arrives. This week, Tencent and Alibaba reminded investors that Chinese artificial intelligence may look like a cheaper alternative to United States names, but it is not cheap to build. Tencent unsettled investors after saying it would more than double investment in new AI products in 2026. A day later, Alibaba reported revenue growth of just 2% and a 66% drop in net income, even as cloud revenue rose 36% and Qwen passed 300 million monthly active users.

That contrast is the real hook. China’s AI race is not trying to beat Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta yuan for dollar. It is trying to win by doing more with less: lower-cost open-source models, giant consumer platforms, faster product rollouts and, increasingly, home-grown chips.

Cheaper does not mean smaller

The big difference with China is where AI shows up first. In the United States, the clearest monetisation paths so far sit in cloud contracts, software tools and advertising upgrades. In China, the near-term opportunity looks more consumer-led and platform-led. Agentic AI, meaning software that completes tasks across apps instead of only answering questions, fits neatly into ecosystems that already handle chat, payments, shopping, travel and delivery. Tencent wants that front door to be WeChat. Alibaba wants Qwen and its new enterprise tools to become the operating layer for shopping, work and cloud usage.

That helps explain why Chinese AI can look “cheaper” than its United States peers while still being commercially interesting. These companies already own the traffic. They do not always need to persuade users to adopt a brand new habit. They can bolt AI onto habits that already exist. The catch is that low prices and wide adoption do not guarantee good profits. China’s enterprise market has been slower to spend heavily on information technology services, which makes consumer usage and token billing look more important, but also more uncertain. Tokens, put simply, are the units of AI usage that companies charge for when a model reads, writes or acts.

Alibaba brings the shovel, Tencent brings the traffic

Alibaba looks like the more obvious infrastructure bet. In February 2025, it pledged at least 380 billion yuan over three years for AI and cloud infrastructure. In its latest results, it said its T-Head chip arm now has a proprietary graphics processing unit, or GPU, in production at scale, supporting training, fine-tuning and inference while contributing meaningfully to cloud supply. That is the closest thing in China to the classic AI shovel story. Alibaba is trying to own more of the stack, from model to chip to cloud bill.

Tencent’s route is cleverer, but narrower. Its new AI product costs were 7 billion yuan in the December quarter and 18 billion yuan in 2025, and management now expects that figure to more than double in 2026. Investors did not love the sound of that, especially when it came with a slower buyback programme and limited detail on near-term returns. AI bills have a habit of arriving before AI profits, and markets are rarely famous for patience.

babatencentGraph

Still, Tencent has one advantage Alibaba cannot copy: distribution. WeChat remains one of the strongest digital gateways anywhere, and Tencent is already using AI to improve ad targeting, gaming economics and cloud services. So the spending debate is not really about whether Tencent can build useful AI. It is about whether those improvements can fund the next wave of investment quickly enough to keep investors calm. Alibaba has chosen heavier spending and clearer infrastructure ownership. Tencent is trying to spend just enough while letting its existing engine carry the weight.

Better chips help, but they do not settle the case

The semiconductor story adds another twist. Nvidia has won approval to resume sales of H200 chips to China, and Tencent has said foreign accelerators are becoming available again. That matters because export controls had constrained 2025 spending plans. But the news did not transform the mood because the harder question is no longer simple access. It is return on investment. More chips help only if they lead to more useful services, more paying users and better margins. Otherwise they are just a more expensive electricity bill.

Chinese groups also are not waiting politely for Washington to solve their supply chain. Alibaba says its in-house GPU is now contributing to cloud infrastructure supply. Tencent says its GPU capacity should step up during 2026 and 2027. China’s broader AI ecosystem has already learned to work under tighter hardware constraints, which has pushed firms towards algorithm and hardware efficiency. That is one reason the “cheaper China AI” idea keeps resurfacing. Scarcity can be an unpleasant teacher, but it does teach.

Risks in plain sight

The risks are not hard to find. First, monetisation is still the soft spot. Tencent admits returns from new AI products will take time, while Alibaba is still relying on e-commerce cash flows to fund a large AI push. Second, the core businesses are under pressure. Alibaba’s quick commerce battle is hurting profits, and Tencent still depends heavily on games and advertising to finance future bets. Third, regulation and security could become a real brake on agentic AI just as usage explodes.

Investor playbook

  • Watch revenue growth and margin together. In AI, usage without economics is only half a story.

  • Compare ecosystems, not just models. Distribution often matters more than benchmark glory.

  • Treat chip access as an enabler, not the end result. Monetisation remains the real finish line.

Cheap AI, costly proof

China’s AI appeal is easy to understand. The companies are cheaper than the United States mega-cap favourites, the products are moving fast, and the user bases are huge. But this week’s earnings show the real test is not who launches the cleverest agent or shouts loudest about the next model. It is who can fund the compute, protect the core business and turn AI from a subsidy into a service people will keep paying for.

Cheap AI is not the same as free AI. In China, the opportunity may lie in a market trying to build practical AI under tighter budgets and tighter constraints. That can create winners. It also sends the bill early.






This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Outrageous Predictions 2026

01 /

  • Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Outrageous Predictions

    Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026

    Saxo Group

    Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
  • A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Outrageous Predictions

    A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi...
  • Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    Outrageous Predictions

    Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...
  • Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral...
  • Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Outrageous Predictions

    Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p...
  • Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Outrageous Predictions

    Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril...
  • Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Outrageous Predictions

    Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance

    Neil Wilson

    Investor Content Strategist

    A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash...
  • SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    Outrageous Predictions

    SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-...
  • Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    Outrageous Predictions

    Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w...
  • Nvidia balloons to twice the value of Apple

    Outrageous Predictions

    Nvidia balloons to twice the value of Apple

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Armed with its revolutionary AI chips, could tech giant Nvidia grow to twice Apple's size and become...

This content is marketing material. 

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice or a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Saxo partners with companies that provide compensation for promotional activities conducted on its platform. Some partners also pay retrocessions contingent on clients investing in products from those partners.

While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all educational and research content remains focused on providing information to clients.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900 Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.