Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Brent Crude Oil shooting higher this morning due to Russia invading Ukraine. Brent Oil has reached 1.764 projection of the November 2021 correction but is not unlikely to continue higher to 2.00 projection at around $107.68
That level is also more or less in the middle of the consolidation area from 2011- to 2014 just prior to the bearish break out. The current strong bullish move could be the 5th vawe higher if the correction we saw in November 2021 was the 4th corrective wave. (Normally a 4th corrective wave would be more complex than this one seems to have been)
Normally the 3rd wave is the longest but in commodities it is often seen to be the 5th. However, if this is the the 5th wave and should be at least a long as the 3rd wave the target would be around $116.68.
RSI and MACD on Monthly currently supports that scenario with no divergence
Picture is identical for WTI Light Sweet Crude oil hitting minor resistance at around $98.86 but there is room up till resistance at around $110
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.