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24oilM

Technical Update - Crude oil. Is this the 5th extended wave higher?

Commodity 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Brent Crude Oil shooting higher this morning due to Russia invading Ukraine. Brent Oil has reached 1.764 projection of the November 2021 correction but is not unlikely to continue higher to 2.00 projection at around $107.68

Brent oil D 24 feb
Source: Saxo Group

That level is also more or less in the middle of the consolidation area from 2011- to 2014 just prior to the bearish break out. The current strong bullish move could be the 5th vawe higher if the correction we saw in November 2021 was the 4th corrective wave. (Normally a 4th corrective wave would be more complex than this one seems to have been)

Normally the 3rd wave is the longest but in commodities it is often seen to be the 5th. However, if this is the the 5th wave and should be at least a long as the 3rd wave the target would be around $116.68.

RSI and MACD on Monthly currently supports that scenario with no divergence

 

Brent oil M 24 feb
Source: Saxo Group

Picture is identical for WTI Light Sweet Crude oil hitting minor resistance at around $98.86 but there is room up till resistance at around $110

WTI M 24 feb
Source: Saxo Group

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