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Technical Update - Crude oil struggling for momentum. Gasoline breaking falling trendline. Natural gas powering higher

Commodities 5 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Brent Crude oil is struggling to get upside momentum following the bottom and reversal Hammer candle 2 weeks ago. However, if Brent can close above $107.70 it has confirmed a short-term uptrend. Next obstacles are the rising (black) trendline and the 0.618 retracement at 113.52. 
To reverse the rebound picture still under development a close below 96.75 id needed.

Brent 26 jul
Source: Saxo Group

WTI crude oil is struggling more than Brent having tested the key support at around $92.93 twice. A close above 105.24 is needed for confirmation of a short-term uptrend. However, 55 and 100 SMA’s are coming down likely putting a damper on a potential rise. We could see a period of sideways range trading in oil.

WTI d 26 jul
Source: Saxo Group

Gasoline is at the time of writing trading above its short-term falling trend line after bouncing from support at around $300. RSI showing divergence indicating a reversal. If Gasoline closes above 350 it is likely to establish an uptrend that can take it to the 0.618 retracement at 382.
If Gasoline closes below 298 the rebound scenario is reversed

Gasoline d 26 jul
Source: Saxo Group

Sellers in Dutch TTF gas tried last week to push the price below key support at €152 only for buyers to take immediate control resulting in Dutch gas to close above the support. 152 support is too strong.
Dutch gas is set for higher prices and is likely to reach 229 possibly 242 within 1-2 weeks. If gas prices break above its upper rising trendline prices could accelerate. Key resistance seems to be around $205-214.50.

Dutch gas 26 jul
Source: Saxo Group

Henry Hub gas is going ballistic breaking all potential Fibonacci retracement levels. Henry Hub is on course to test June highs around $9.66 where from a correction is not unlikely. However, there are no signs of divergence on RSI indicating new highs are likely.

 

Henry hub 26 jul
Source: Saxo Group

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