Saxo Investor Forecast – United Kingdom

UK investors enter the next six months with broadly positive views across all major markets, led by strong confidence in Japan and the global market, and a clearly supportive UK outlook. Diversification plans are more expansionary than the global average, while macro sensitivities are elevated for overvaluation, defence, and AI themes.

General optimism on market performance, with Japan and the global market standing out

In the first line of questions, we asked our clients whether they believe that the five equity markets—the UK market (FTSE 100), the US market, the European market, the Japanese market, and the global market—would 1) increase, 2) decrease, or show 3) no movement in value over the next half-year.

Across markets, UK increase shares generally sit above the global benchmark, with particularly strong readings for Japan, the global market, and the UK market. For the UK market, 60% expect an increase versus a lower global average. The global market also draws a strong result at 66%, while Japan stands out at 72%, among the leading positive readings in the series. The picture remains supportive for Europe (55% increase) and the US (55% increase), both ahead of global norms and pointing to a broadly constructive stance across regions.

Taken together, the UK displays a solidly optimistic market view—led by Japan and the global market—while UK, Europe, and the US also sit comfortably in positive territory.

Gender and age differences

Women show higher ‘increase’ shares than men for Europe, Japan, and the global market. On the US market, they show a more polarised pattern—a higher ‘increase’ share but also more respondents selecting ‘decrease’ and none choosing ‘no movement’—rather than being straightforwardly more optimistic. By age, increase expectations for the US and Europe generally rise with age. On the local market, the 36–60 and 61+ cohorts report higher “increase” shares than the 18–35 group, and for Japan, the mid and older cohorts clearly outpace the youngest.

Overall, demographic splits are additive rather than directional: they amplify a positive UK tone rather than shifting it.

More UK investors plan to add new areas than globally; fewer plan to cut exposure

We’ve asked our client base whether they are most likely to invest in the same, new, or fewer regions, sectors, or asset classes than today.

The UK skews more expansionary than the global sample. 53% plan to invest in the same areas (vs a higher global figure), 40% intend to add new areas (vs a lower global figure), and 7% expect to invest in fewer (vs a slightly higher global figure). In short, UK investors are less likely than the global sample to stand still and more likely to broaden their exposure, while reductions remain comparatively low.

Together, these results point to a constructive diversification stance—continuity as the base case, paired with a stronger-than-average appetite to add new exposures.

Gender and age differences

Women are more likely than men to select ‘new,’ and also show a higher tendency to reduce exposure (‘fewer’), while men are far more likely to select ‘same.’ By age, 61+ lean most toward same, while 36–60 show the highest new share; the fewer option remains low across cohorts.

In sum, diversification intent in the UK is anchored by steadiness but tilts toward expansion—especially among women and mid-career investors.

Macro themes: overvaluation is markedly higher than global; defence and AI also above

As the final part of this investor forecast, we asked our clients whether they were considering altering their investment strategy based on:

• Trump’s policy impacts
• European defence needs
• AI-driven opportunities
• AI-related concerns
• Growth optimism
• Reconsidering if the market is overvalued

Overvaluation is a clear outlier in the UK at 80%, well above the global norm and the most prominent theme in this market. European defence needs also sit above global at 56%. AI-driven opportunities (57%) and AI-related concerns (55%) are both modestly above global readings, while Trump’s policy impacts (56%) and growth optimism (53%) are broadly in line with global figures.

Altogether, the UK macro profile combines strong valuation vigilance with elevated attention to defence and AI, while policy and growth remain important but not outsized drivers.

Gender and age differences

Women register higher “yes” shares than men on most themes—particularly Trump’s policy impacts, European defence needs, AI-driven opportunities, and AI-related concerns—while men sit closer on overvaluation and growth optimism. By age, AI opportunities tend to peak in the 36–60 cohort, and overvaluation remains consistently high across age groups.

In sum, the UK’s macro stance is defined by valuation awareness, with technology and defence considerations meaningfully in view across demographics.

About the survey

The survey was undertaken from 6 February to 1 March 2026. As such, most replies were collected prior to the US and Israel attacks on Iran on 28 February 2026 and thus do not include any considerations about the added uncertainty caused by this conflict, which in many instances may have altered sentiment. The survey asked investors to look at their perception of the financial markets in the six months from 1 April to 30 September. The survey was answered by 90 clients in the United Kingdom.

See full list of responses below:

How do you think the following equity markets will perform in the coming half-year?

UK market (FTSE 100)

US market

European market

Japanese market

Global market

Which of the following statements do you think is most realistic for your investment strategy in the coming half-year?

Diversification

Are you planning to alter your investment strategy based on the following themes or events?

Trump’s policy impacts

European defence needs

AI-driven opportunities

AI-related concerns

Growth optimism

Reconsidering if markets are overvalued