Saxo Investor Forecast - The Netherlands

Dutch investors approach the next six months with cautious market views overall. Confidence is in line with global for Europe, below global for the US and global markets, and softer than global for Japan. Diversification plans show the highest “no change” share among country reports so far, and macro sensitivities are lower than global across most themes, with overvaluation also sitting notably below the global level.

General optimism on market performance, with Europe aligned to global and a more neutral read on the rest

In the first line of questions, we asked our clients whether they believe that the five equity markets—the Dutch market (AEX), the US market, the European market, the Japanese market, and the global market—would 1) increase, 2) decrease, or show 3) no movement in value over the next half-year.

For the Dutch market, 43% of respondents expect an increase versus 48% globally, with a relatively high share selecting no movement, signalling a neutral domestic stance. Europe is in line with global at 51% (vs 51% globally). Japan sits below the global benchmark (45% Netherlands vs 63% global). The US garners the most cautious reading: 29% in the Netherlands vs 40% globally. The global equity market is also viewed more neutrally (43% Netherlands vs 57% global), with more respondents choosing no movement.

Taken together, the Netherlands mirrors the global ordering of markets but with a broadly more neutral tone—closest to global on Europe, softer on Japan, and notably more cautious on the US and the global market.

Gender and age differences

By age on the Dutch market, increase shares vary but the broader pattern remains: younger investors show pockets of optimism while on the Dutch market, ‘no movement’ rises with age (25% among 18–35, 39.7% among 36–60, 42.6% among 61+). By gender, women tend to be more neutral on the global market and more likely than men to select decrease on the US, while men are modestly more optimistic on Europe.

Overall, demographic patterns reinforce the headline picture of a generally neutral Dutch stance, with Europe the relative bright spot.

The Netherlands shows the highest “no change” in diversification among country reports

We’ve asked our client base whether they are most likely to invest in the same, new, or fewer regions, sectors, or asset classes than today.

The Netherlands stands out for continuity: 80% plan to invest in the same areas (80% Netherlands vs 63% Global). Only 11% intend to add new areas (11% vs 27% globally), and 8% expect to invest in fewer (8% vs 10% globally).

In short, the Dutch profile is the most “stay the course” in the series so far—markedly less expansionary than the global picture and only slightly below global on planned reductions.

Gender and age differences

Women are more likely than men to plan changes (a higher new share and a slightly higher fewer share), while men are more likely to select same. By age, 18–35 lean heavily toward same, with mid-career and older groups showing a modestly higher appetite for change.

Together, these splits point to a stability-first stance across the board, with only selective exploration of new areas.

Macro themes: defence and US policy near global; AI opportunity and concern below; overvaluation meaningfully lower

As the final part of this investor forecast, we asked our clients whether they were considering altering their investment strategy based on:

• Trump’s policy impacts
• European defence needs
• AI-driven opportunities
• AI-related concerns
• Growth optimism
• Reconsidering if the market is overvalued

On policy and security, the Netherlands sits close to global: Trump’s policy impacts 56% (56% NL vs 57% Global) and European defence needs 53% (53% vs 48%). Technology-related themes are below global: AI-driven opportunities 48% (48% vs 56%) and AI-related concerns 40% (40% vs 53%). Growth optimism is slightly lower (52% vs 54%). Overvaluation is notably below the global mark (57% vs 69%).

Altogether, the Dutch macro profile is comparatively muted—less inclined than the global sample to change strategy on AI and valuation signals, while policy and defence sit closer to the global baseline.

Gender and age differences

Women show a higher inclination than men to cite overvaluation, and a more balanced split on AI-related concerns, while men more often cite AI-driven opportunities. By age, growth optimism is strongest among younger respondents and stabilises in older groups; defence needs tend to rise with age.

In sum, the Netherlands stands out for restrained macro reactivity, with valuation concerns present but less dominant than globally.

About the survey

The survey was undertaken from 6 February to 1 March 2026. As such, most replies were collected prior to the US and Israel attacks on Iran on 28 February 2026 and thus do not include any considerations about the added uncertainty caused by this conflict, which in many instances may have altered sentiment. The survey asked investors to look at their perception of the financial markets in the six months from 1 April to 30 September. The survey was answered by 201 clients in the Netherlands.

See full list of responses below:

How do you think the following equity markets will perform in the coming half-year?

Dutch market (AEX)

Segment	Increase	No movement	Decrease
All responses	43.3%	41.2%	15.5%
Male	44.1%	39.8%	16.1%
Female	25.0%	75.0%	0.0%
Age 18–35	75.0%	25.0%	0.0%
Age 36–60	35.3%	39.7%	25.0%
Age 61+	46.7%	42.6%	10.7%

US market

Segment	Increase	No movement	Decrease
All responses	28.5%	29.0%	42.5%
Male	28.8%	29.3%	41.8%
Female	22.2%	22.2%	55.6%
Age 18–35	20.0%	60.0%	20.0%
Age 36–60	25.4%	22.4%	52.2%
Age 61+	30.6%	31.4%	38.0%

European market

Segment	Increase	No movement	Decrease
All responses	51.3%	35.4%	13.3%
Male	51.9%	34.6%	13.5%
Female	40.0%	50.0%	10.0%
Age 18–35	80.0%	20.0%	0.0%
Age 36–60	44.9%	33.3%	21.7%
Age 61+	53.7%	37.2%	9.1%

Japanese market

Segment	Increase	No movement	Decrease
All responses	44.6%	33.1%	22.3%
Male	44.7%	33.3%	22.0%
Female	42.9%	28.6%	28.6%
Age 18–35	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%
Age 36–60	38.3%	23.3%	38.3%
Age 61+	48.0%	38.2%	13.7%

Global market

Segment	Increase	No movement	Decrease
All responses	42.7%	41.1%	16.2%
Male	43.8%	39.8%	16.5%
Female	22.2%	66.7%	11.1%
Age 18–35	60.0%	20.0%	20.0%
Age 36–60	44.2%	29.9%	31.3%
Age 61+	44.2%	48.7%	7.1%

Which of the following statements do you think is most realistic for your investment strategy in the coming half-year?

Diversification

Segment	Same	New	Fewer
All responses	80.1%	11.4%	8.5%
Male	81.1%	11.1%	7.9%
Female	70.0%	20.0%	10.0%
Age 18–35	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Age 36–60	75.7%	15.7%	8.6%
Age 61+	81.7%	9.5%	8.7%

Are you planning to alter your investment strategy based on the following themes or events?

Trump’s policy impacts

Segment	Yes	No
All responses	55.9%	44.1%
Male	55.9%	44.1%
Female	55.6%	44.4%
Age 18–35	50.0%	50.0%
Age 36–60	62.9%	37.1%
Age 61+	52.2%	47.8%

European defence needs

Segment	Yes	No
All responses	53.5%	46.5%
Male	53.9%	46.1%
Female	44.4%	55.6%
Age 18–35	25.0%	75.0%
Age 36–60	43.8%	56.3%
Age 61+	59.7%	40.3%

AI-driven opportunities

Segment	Yes	No
All responses	48.0%	52.0%
Male	48.2%	51.8%
Female	42.9%	57.1%
Age 18–35	75.0%	25.0%
Age 36–60	52.4%	47.6%
Age 61+	44.5%	55.5%

AI-related concerns

Segment	Yes	No
All responses	39.9%	60.1%
Male	39.5%	60.5%
Female	50.0%	50.0%
Age 18–35	40.0%	60.0%
Age 36–60	50.0%	50.0%
Age 61+	34.0%	66.0%

Growth optimism

Segment	Yes	No
All responses	52.3%	47.7%
Male	52.4%	47.6%
Female	50.0%	50.0%
Age 18–35	100.0%	0.0%
Age 36–60	51.6%	48.4%
Age 61+	51.4%	48.6%

Reconsidering if markets are overvalued

Segment	Yes	No
All responses	57.1%	42.9%
Male	56.7%	43.3%
Female	66.7%	33.3%
Age 18–35	25.0%	75.0%
Age 36–60	56.7%	43.3%
Age 61+	58.6%	41.4%

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.