Saxo Investor Forecast - MENA

MENA investors enter the next six months with broadly positive market views, led by strong confidence in the global and European markets, and above global readings for the US and Japan. Diversification plans are more active than the global average, with fewer opting to keep allocations unchanged and more planning to add new areas. On macro themes, overvaluation, AI, and growth optimism are all elevated versus global.

General optimism on market performance, with the strongest confidence in the global market

In the first line of questions, we asked our clients whether they believe that the four equity markets—the US market, the European market, the Japanese market, and the global market—would 1) increase, 2) decrease, or show 3) no movement in value over the next half-year.

Across the markets, the MENA region is distinctly upbeat. Global: 70% of MENA respondents expect an increase vs 57% globally. Europe: 55% vs 51% globally. US: 51% vs 40% globally. Japan: 61% vs 63% globally (broadly in line).

Taken together, MENA shows a top-down confidence profile—clear strength on the global market, supportive views on Europe and the US, and a Japan view that is close to the global benchmark.

Gender and age differences

By age, optimism on Europe and the global market is highest among 18–35, then softens with age; the US increase share also trends lower across older cohorts. By gender, men are more optimistic than women on the US, European, Japanese, and global markets, with women showing materially lower increase shares and higher decrease shares across all major markets.

Overall, younger investors amplify the region’s constructive top-down stance, while gender differences are modest and market-specific.

Diversification: fewer plan to keep allocations unchanged than globally; expansion intent is higher

We’ve asked our client base whether they are most likely to invest in the same, new, or fewer regions, sectors, or asset classes than today.

MENA investors are more inclined to adjust portfolios than the global sample. Same: 52% in MENA vs 63% globally. New: 33% vs 27% globally. Fewer: 15% vs 10% globally.

In short, the region exhibits an active posture—less “no change” and more “add new”—suggesting confidence to broaden exposures even as a somewhat larger minority considers trimming.

Gender and age differences

Women are more likely than men to select new, while men more often select same. By age, same rises through mid-career and softens among 61+, while new is most prevalent among younger and mid-career investors.

Together, these splits point to a region that balances continuity with a clear appetite to expand—especially outside the oldest cohort.

Macro themes: overvaluation, AI, and growth optimism are all elevated versus global

As the final part of this investor forecast, we asked our clients whether they were considering altering their investment strategy based on:

• Trump’s policy impacts
• European defence needs
• AI-driven opportunities
• AI-related concerns
• Growth optimism
• Reconsidering if the market is overvalued

Multiple themes register above global levels. Overvaluation: 79% in MENA vs 69% globally. AI-driven opportunities: 66% vs 56%. AI-related concerns: 59% vs 53%. Growth optimism: 65% vs 54%. Policy and security sit close to the global baseline (Trump 56% vs 57%; European defence needs 49% vs 48%).

Altogether, the region’s macro stance combines elevated attention to valuation and AI with a confident growth outlook, while policy and defence remain secondary but still salient.

Gender and age differences

Women are more likely than men to cite AI-related concerns and European defence needs, while men more often highlight AI-driven opportunities and growth optimism. By age, 18–35 lead on AI opportunity and global market optimism, and defence needs tend to rise with age.

In sum, MENA investors balance opportunity and risk—leaning into AI and growth while keeping valuation and security factors firmly on the radar.

About the survey

The survey was undertaken from 6 February to 1 March 2026. As such, most replies were collected prior to the US and Israel attacks on Iran on 28 February 2026 and thus do not include any considerations about the added uncertainty caused by this conflict, which in many instances may have altered sentiment. The survey asked investors to look at their perception of the financial markets in the six months from 1 April to 30 September. The survey was answered by 144 clients in MENA.

See full list of responses below:

How do you think the following equity markets will perform in the coming half-year?

US market

European market

Japanese market

Global market

Which of the following statements do you think is most realistic for your investment strategy in the coming half-year?

Diversification

Are you planning to alter your investment strategy based on the following themes or events?

Trump’s policy impacts

European defence needs

AI-driven opportunities

AI-related concerns

Growth optimism

Reconsidering if markets are overvalued