Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
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Saxo Investor Forecast – Japan
Client Report
Saxo
Summary: How Japanese investors view markets, diversification, and key macro themes for the coming half-year
Japanese investors enter the next six months with exceptionally strong confidence in Japan and the US, and a broadly positive view on the global market, while readings on Europe are close to global and the Japanese market view is more evenly split. Diversification plans favour staying the course more than elsewhere, and macro sensitivities are notably elevated for both AI-driven opportunities and AI-related concerns.
General optimism on market performance, with the strongest confidence in Japan and solid sentiment on the US and global markets
In the first line of questions, we asked our clients whether they believe that these equity markets—the US market, the European market, the Japanese market, and the global market—would 1) increase, 2) decrease, or show 3) no movement in value over the next half-year.
Confidence is led by the Japanese equity market, where 77% expect an increase versus 63% globally. Sentiment toward the US is also notably higher than global (56% Japan vs 40% global), and the global equity market is viewed positively (65% vs 57%). Europe sits broadly in line (48% vs 51%).
Taken together, Japan stands out for its strong conviction in its home market and the US, while maintaining broadly supportive views on the global market and neutral to aligned readings on Europe.
Gender and age differences
Across demographics, the upbeat pattern persists. Women are especially positive on the US (61% women vs 54% men expect an increase) and on the global market (78% vs 61%). By age, enthusiasm for Japan is broad but peaks among 36–60, while increase expectations for the US and global markets tend to rise with age. On the Japanese market, the 61+ cohort shows the most polarised view, with a higher decrease share alongside a sizeable increase share.
Overall, women and older investors amplify Japan’s already strong optimism, particularly for the US and global markets, while views on the Japanese market remain more balanced.
Most Japanese investors expect to keep their current level of diversification
We’ve asked our client base whether they are most likely to invest in the same, new, or fewer regions, sectors, or asset classes than today.
Japan is characterised by continuity: 74% plan to invest in the same areas (74% Japan vs 63% Global), 22% aim to add new areas (22% vs 27%), and 4% expect to invest in fewer (4% vs 10%).
In short, Japanese investors favour stability more than the global sample, with a lower propensity to both expand and reduce than elsewhere.
Gender and age differences
Men are more likely to keep allocations unchanged than women, while women are more inclined to add new areas. By age, interest in new is highest among 18–35, and the likelihood of selecting same rises with age.
Together, these splits confirm a continuity-first profile, tempered by selective expansion among younger and female investors.
Macro themes: AI opportunity and AI risk both stand out; overvaluation is in line with global
As the final part of this investor forecast, we asked our clients whether they were considering altering their investment strategy based on:
- Trump’s policy impacts
- European defence needs
- AI-driven opportunities
- AI-related concerns
- Growth optimism
- Reconsidering if the market is overvalued
Technology-related themes dominate in Japan. AI-driven opportunities are the top signal at 73% (73% Japan vs 56% Global) and AI-related concerns are similarly elevated at 70% (70% vs 53%). Trump’s policy impacts scores 67% (67% vs 57%). European defence needs sit near global (48% vs 48%), growth optimism is modestly higher (56% vs 54%), and overvaluation is essentially in line (68% vs 69%).
Altogether, Japanese investors display a pronounced dual view on AI—opportunity and risk—alongside sustained attention to US policy, while valuation concerns remain broadly consistent with the global picture.
Gender and age differences
Women register higher “yes” responses than men on both AI-driven opportunities and AI-related concerns, and also cite overvaluation more often. By age, AI opportunity is strongest among 18–35, while Trump’s policy impacts remain high across cohorts. European defence needs are most salient among younger investors compared with older groups.
In sum, Japan’s macro profile couples technology-led opportunity with heightened technology risk awareness and keeps policy considerations firmly in view.
About the survey
The survey was undertaken from 6 February to 1 March 2026. As such, most replies were collected prior to the US and Israel attacks on Iran on 28 February 2026 and thus do not include any considerations about the added uncertainty caused by this conflict, which in many instances may have altered sentiment. The survey asked investors to look at their perception of the financial markets in the six months from 1 April to 30 September. The survey was answered by 223 clients in Japan.
See full list of replies below:
How do you think the following equity markets will perform in the coming half-year?
US market
| Segment | Increase | No movement | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 55.8% | 26.9% | 17.3% |
| Male | 54.4% | 26.6% | 19.0% |
| Female | 61.4% | 25.0% | 13.6% |
| Non-binary / third gender | 33.3% | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 46.2% | 30.8% | 23.1% |
| Age 36–60 | 52.3% | 27.5% | 20.1% |
| Age 61+ | 69.6% | 23.9% | 6.5% |
European market
| Segment | Increase | No movement | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 48.2% | 37.0% | 14.8% |
| Male | 52.3% | 29.7% | 18.0% |
| Female | 36.8% | 63.2% | 0.0% |
| Non-binary / third gender | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 50.0% | 30.0% | 20.0% |
| Age 36–60 | 44.3% | 38.1% | 17.5% |
| Age 61+ | 60.7% | 35.7% | 3.6% |
Japanese market
| Segment | Increase | No movement | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 76.9% | 10.1% | 13.0% |
| Male | 77.6% | 8.3% | 14.1% |
| Female | 78.3% | 13.0% | 8.7% |
| Non-binary / third gender | 66.7% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 36.4% | 27.3% | 36.4% |
| Age 36–60 | 81.5% | 7.3% | 11.3% |
| Age 61+ | 71.7% | 15.2% | 13.0% |
Global market
| Segment | Increase | No movement | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 64.5% | 24.0% | 11.5% |
| Male | 61.3% | 24.6% | 14.1% |
| Female | 78.4% | 18.9% | 2.7% |
| Non-binary / third gender | 66.7% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 41.7% | 33.3% | 25.0% |
| Age 36–60 | 67.7% | 20.0% | 12.3% |
| Age 61+ | 61.0% | 34.1% | 4.9% |
Diversification
| Segment | Same | New | Fewer |
|---|---|---|---|
| All responses | 74.4% | 21.5% | 4.0% |
| Male | 76.5% | 18.7% | 4.8% |
| Female | 64.7% | 33.3% | 2.0% |
| Non-binary / third gender | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 46.2% | 53.8% | 0.0% |
| Age 36–60 | 73.3% | 22.4% | 4.3% |
| Age 61+ | 85.7% | 10.2% | 4.1% |
Trump’s policy impacts
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| Male | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| Female | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| Non-binary / third gender | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Age 18–35 | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| Age 36–60 | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| Age 61+ | 61.5% | 38.5% |
European defence needs
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Male | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Female | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Non-binary / third gender | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 90.9% | 9.1% |
| Age 36–60 | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| Age 61+ | 34.5% | 65.5% |
AI-driven opportunities
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| Male | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| Female | 79.5% | 20.5% |
| Non-binary / third gender | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 84.6% | 15.4% |
| Age 36–60 | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| Age 61+ | 72.5% | 27.5% |
AI-related concerns
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| Male | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| Female | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| Non-binary / third gender | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 91.7% | 8.3% |
| Age 36–60 | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| Age 61+ | 64.9% | 35.1% |
Growth optimism
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| Male | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Female | 62.9% | 37.1% |
| Non-binary / third gender | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Age 36–60 | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| Age 61+ | 52.9% | 47.1% |
Reconsidering if markets are overvalued
| Segment | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| All responses | 68.4% | 31.6% |
| Male | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| Female | 74.2% | 25.8% |
| Non-binary / third gender | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Age 18–35 | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| Age 36–60 | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| Age 61+ | 65.7% | 34.3% |
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