Saxo Investor Forecast – Italy

Italian investors approach the next six months with a more neutral stance than the global sample on most markets, while remaining constructively positive on Japan. Diversification plans broadly align with the global pattern, and macro sensitivities are less elevated than global for most themes, with overvaluation the key exception.

General optimism on market performance, with a neutral tone towards the Italian market and the strongest trust in Japan

In the first line of questions, we asked our clients whether they believe that the five equity markets—the Italian (FTSE MIB), the US market, the European market, the Japanese market, and the global market—would 1) increase, 2) decrease, or show 3) no movement in value over the next half-year.

On the Italian market, 31% of Italian respondents expect an increase versus 48% globally, and “no movement” is comparatively higher—pointing to a more neutral domestic view. Japan stands out more favourably: 58% in Italy expect an increase vs 63% globally. For Europe, expectations are softer at 34% vs 51% globally. The US gathers the most cautious reading: 20% in Italy expect an increase vs 40% globally. The global equity market is also viewed more neutrally at 41% vs 57% globally, with a higher preference for “no movement.”

Taken together, Italy mirrors the global ordering—Japan and Europe garner the most confidence—yet with a distinctly more neutral tone on the Italian and global markets and a comparatively softer view on the US.

Gender and age differences

Gender differences follow the overall pattern: women lean more balanced on the Italian market, while men track the aggregate but remain below global on most markets. By age, younger and older cohorts split between no movement and increase on the Italian market, with a modest tilt toward Japan across groups—reinforcing the overall Italian preference for stability alongside selective optimism.

Overall, demographic patterns preserve the headline picture: Japan attracts the greatest confidence, while Italian, Europe, global, and especially the US are read more cautiously than in the global sample.

Diversification plans largely align with the global picture

We’ve asked our client base whether they are most likely to invest in the same, new, or fewer regions, sectors, or asset classes than today.

Italy closely mirrors the global stance. 63% plan to invest in the same areas (63% Italy vs 63% Global), 27% aim to add new areas (27% vs 27%), and 10% expect to invest in fewer areas (10% vs 10%).

In short, Italian investors broadly favour continuity, with a measured openness to new exposures and limited appetite to de-risk—closely aligned with the global pattern.

Gender and age differences

Women tilt toward ‘same’ but are more likely than the country average to add new areas (40% vs 27%) and less likely to reduce (0% vs 10%). By age, 18–35 are the most likely to keep allocations unchanged, while older cohorts show a balanced split between same and new, with fewer modestly higher among the oldest group.

Together, these splits confirm that Italy’s diversification profile is essentially like the global print: steady allocations with selective expansion.

Macro themes: overvaluation aligns with global; other themes sit below global

As the final part of this investor forecast, we asked our clients whether they were considering altering their investment strategy based on:

• Trump’s policy impacts
• European defence needs
• AI-driven opportunities
• AI-related concerns
• Growth optimism
• Reconsidering if the market is overvalued

Overvaluation stands out at 70% in Italy vs 69% globally—fully in line with the global signal. Most other themes sit below global readings: Trump’s policy impacts 46% (vs 57%), European defence needs 42% (vs 48%), AI-driven opportunities 49% (vs 56%), AI-related concerns 49% (vs 53%), and growth optimism 46% (vs 54%).

Altogether, Italy shows a measured macro stance: valuation concerns resonate as they do globally, while policy, defence, AI, and growth drivers are comparatively less likely to trigger strategy changes.

Gender and age differences

Women register higher attention to AI and overvaluation than men, while men track the country aggregate across the remaining themes. By age, overvaluation increases with age, and growth optimism is lowest among the youngest cohort—consistent with a careful, stability-oriented profile.

In sum, Italian investors weigh valuation risks meaningfully, yet display a generally lower propensity than the global sample to adjust strategy based on other macro drivers.

About the survey

The survey was undertaken from 6 February to 1 March 2026. As such, most replies were collected prior to the US and Israel attacks on Iran on 28 February 2026 and thus do not include any considerations about the added uncertainty caused by this conflict, which in many instances may have altered sentiment. The survey asked investors to look at their perception of the financial markets in the six months from 1 April to 30 September. The survey was answered by 153 clients in Italy.

See full list of responses below:

How do you think the following equity markets will perform in the coming half-year?

Italian market (FTSE MIB)

US market

European market

Japanese market

Global market

Which of the following statements do you think is most realistic for your investment strategy in the coming half-year?

Diversification

Are you planning to alter your investment strategy based on the following themes or events?

Trump's policy impacts

European defence needs

AI-driven opportunities

AI-related concerns

Growth optimism

Reconsidering if markets are overvalued