Saxo Investor Forecast - France

French investors approach the next six months with a more neutral stance than the global sample on the French and global markets, while remaining constructively positive on Japan and broadly in line on Europe. Diversification plans tilt more toward adding new areas than globally, and macro sensitivities are elevated on valuation, policy, and AI-related risks.

General Optimism on Market Performance

In the first line of questions, we asked our clients whether they believe that the five equity markets—the French CAC 40, the US market, the European market, the Japanese market, and the global market—would 1) increase, 2) decrease, or show 3) no movement in value over the next half-year.

On the CAC 40, 37% of French respondents expect an increase versus 48% globally, with a larger share selecting no movement—underscoring a more neutral domestic view. Among the five markets, Japan stands out most favourably in France: 58% expect an increase (vs 63% globally). For Europe, the French reading is 48% vs 51% globally, i.e., broadly in line. By contrast, sentiment toward the US is more cautious in France: 31% expect an increase vs 40% globally. The global equity market is also viewed more neutrally at 49% vs 57% globally, with more respondents choosing no movement.

Taken together, France mirrors the global pattern—Japan and Europe garner the most confidence—yet with a distinctly more neutral stance on the French and global markets and a comparatively softer view on the US.

Gender and Age Differences

Gender differences are consistent with this risk-aware profile. For instance, French women show strong caution on technology risks (see macro section) and balanced views across the markets, while men lean slightly higher on French and global increases but still below global readings. By age, the 18–35 cohort is relatively more positive on Europe than older groups, while on the French market, ‘no movement’ is higher in older groups than among the youngest.

Overall, the demographic pattern preserves the headline picture: Japan and Europe attract the greatest confidence, while French and global markets are read more cautiously than in the global sample.

Diversification Plans

More French investors plan to add new areas; fewer plan to stay unchanged. We’ve asked our client base whether they are most likely to invest in the same, new, or fewer regions, sectors, or asset classes than today.

France is distinguished by a higher expansion intent. 38% plan to invest in new areas vs 27% globally, while only 49% choose same vs 63% globally. The share selecting fewer is 14% vs 10% globally, indicating a somewhat more active reshaping of portfolios on both the upside and the downside.

In short, French investors are less inclined than the global sample to stand still and more inclined to add new exposures, even as a slightly larger minority contemplates trimming.

Gender and Age Differences

By gender, French women are less likely to select same and more likely to choose fewer than the global female reading (e.g., 31% “fewer” in France vs 10% globally), while men in France skew closer to the “add new” profile that sets France apart. By age, 18–35 shows the lowest propensity to reduce diversification (near zero) and a healthy appetite for new, while the 61+ group displays the highest fewer share—again pointing to a more active rebalancing dynamic than globally.

Together, these splits confirm a distinctly French tilt toward portfolio change—especially adding new areas—relative to the steady state global picture.

Macro Themes

Macro themes: overvaluation and AI-related concerns lead for France; policy and defence also sit above global. As the final part of this investor forecast, we asked our clients whether they were considering altering their investment strategy based on:

• Trump’s policy impacts
• European defence needs
• AI-driven opportunities
• AI-related concerns
• Growth optimism
• Reconsidering if the market is overvalued

Market overvaluation is the dominant theme in France: 84% say it may influence their strategy vs 69% globally. AI-related concerns are also elevated at 64% vs 53% globally. Trump’s policy impacts register 68% in France vs 57% globally, and European defence needs 59% vs 48% globally—placing policy and security clearly on the radar. AI-driven opportunities are near global (52% vs 56%), and growth optimism is modestly higher than the global reading (59% vs 54%).

Altogether, France displays a risk-aware macro profile—valuation and AI concerns loom larger—while remaining open to opportunity via growth and AI.

Gender and Age Differences

French women are particularly attentive to AI-related concerns and overvaluation (e.g., women’s “yes” to AI concerns materially above the global female reading, and women’s “yes” to overvaluation very high), while men also score high on overvaluation relative to the global male average. By age, overvaluation runs high across cohorts (high 70s to mid 80s), while growth optimism is stronger among 36–60 and 61+ than among 18–35—consistent with a profile that weighs risks carefully but still sees room for opportunity.

In sum, French investors are among the most valuation-sensitive in the sample, with technology and policy themes reinforcing a broadly vigilant stance.

About the Survey

The survey was undertaken from 6 February to 1 March 2026. As such, most replies were collected prior to the US and Israel attacks on Iran on 28 February 2026 and thus do not include any considerations about the added uncertainty caused by this conflict, which in many instances may have altered sentiment. The survey asked investors to look at their perception of the financial markets in the six months from 1 April to 30 September. The survey was answered by 181 clients in France.

Survey Results

How do you think the following equity markets will perform in the coming half-year?

French (CAC 40) Market

Segment	Increase	No Movement	Decrease
All responses	36.8%	39.3%	23.9%
Male	37.6%	39.6%	22.8%
Female	33.3%	33.3%	33.3%
Age 18–35	50.0%	30.0%	20.0%
Age 36–60	38.6%	41.0%	20.5%
Age 61+	32.9%	38.6%	28.6%

US Market

Segment	Increase	No Movement	Decrease
All responses	31.1%	30.5%	38.4%
Male	31.8%	29.7%	38.5%
Female	28.6%	35.7%	35.7%
Age 18–35	40.0%	20.0%	40.0%
Age 36–60	31.0%	29.8%	39.3%
Age 61+	30.0%	32.9%	37.1%

European Market

Segment	Increase	No Movement	Decrease
All responses	48.2%	34.3%	17.5%
Male	50.9%	31.8%	17.2%
Female	23.1%	53.8%	23.1%
Age 18–35	51.2%	32.1%	16.7%
Age 36–60	35.0%	38.6%	26.4%
Age 61+	40.3%	40.3%	19.4%

Japanese Market

Segment	Increase	No Movement	Decrease
All responses	57.7%	25.6%	16.8%
Male	59.0%	23.0%	18.0%
Female	46.2%	46.2%	7.7%
Age 18–35	66.7%	11.1%	22.2%
Age 36–60	52.8%	29.2%	18.1%
Age 61+	62.5%	23.2%	14.3%

Global Market

Segment	Increase	No Movement	Decrease
All responses	49.3%	36.5%	14.2%
Male	50.4%	36.1%	13.5%
Female	38.5%	38.5%	23.1%
Age 18–35	63.6%	9.1%	27.3%
Age 36–60	50.0%	38.2%	11.8%
Age 61+	45.9%	39.3%	14.8%

Investment Strategy

Segment	Same	New	Fewer
All responses	48.6%	37.6%	13.8%
Male	48.8%	38.9%	12.3%
Female	37.5%	31.3%	31.3%
Age 18–35	58.3%	41.7%	0.0%
Age 36–60	55.1%	37.1%	7.9%
Age 61+	40.0%	37.5%	22.5%

Macro Themes

Trump’s Policy Impacts

Segment	Yes	No
All responses	67.5%	32.5%
Male	67.8%	32.2%
Female	58.3%	41.7%
Age 18–35	60.0%	40.0%
Age 36–60	66.7%	33.3%
Age 61+	69.6%	30.4%

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European Defence Needs

Segment	Yes	No
All responses	59.0%	41.0%
Male	60.3%	39.7%
Female	40.0%	60.0%
Age 18–35	36.4%	63.6%
Age 36–60	55.2%	44.8%
Age 61+	66.7%	33.3%

AI-Driven Opportunities

Segment	Yes	No
All responses	52.1%	47.9%
Male	52.0%	48.0%
Female	46.7%	53.3%
Age 18–35	40.0%	60.0%
Age 36–60	51.2%	48.8%
Age 61+	45.1%	54.9%

AI-Related Concerns

Segment	Yes	No
All responses	63.6%	36.4%
Male	62.0%	38.0%
Female	76.9%	23.1%
Age 18–35	70.0%	30.0%
Age 36–60	63.1%	36.9%
Age 61+	63.4%	36.6%

Growth Optimism

Segment	Yes	No
All responses	59.2%	40.8%
Male	60.4%	39.6%
Female	36.4%	63.6%
Age 18–35	50.0%	50.0%
Age 36–60	60.2%	39.8%
Age 61+	59.4%	40.6%

Reconsidering if Markets are Overvalued

Segment	Yes	No
All responses	83.5%	16.5%
Male	82.4%	17.6%
Female	92.9%	7.1%
Age 18–35	77.8%	22.2%
Age 36–60	83.1%	16.9%
Age 61+	84.7%	15.3%

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.