Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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US Treasury yields are on a move higher
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Summary: At the end of last week, US Treasury yields broke above key resistance levels throughout the yield curve as the market reconsiders interest rate cuts in the second half of this year. This week, the selloff in Treasuries might continue amid the Fed minutes on Wednesday and the PCE index on Friday.
Although rates might continue to soar in the short term, it's essential to acknowledge that a probable recession will drive yields lower in the mid-term.
Thirty-yield yields (30YK3) broke above their descending resistance line and continue to rise towards 4%. If they break above this level, they'll find resistance next at 4.3%.
Thirty-yield yields (30YK3) broke above their descending resistance line and continue to rise towards 4%. If they break above this level, they'll find resistance next at 4.3%.
Ten-year yields (10YK3) broke above the range they have been trading in since March. They'll find resistance at 3.75%, but if they break above this level, they'll find the next resistance at 3.9%.
Two-year yields (2YYK3) are testing the upper band of the range they have been trading in since March at 4.24%. If yields break above this level, they will find resistance next at 4.49%.
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