Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Summary: In the U.S., the presidential debate and stimulus talks will dictate sentiment in the Treasury market. We will most likely see the U.S. yield curve flatten slightly before resuming its steepening, as volatility rises as we get closer to election results. In Europe, we expect gilts to rise as more uncertainty is added surrounding Brexit talks and coronavirus restrictions are imposed. The periphery will also continue its rally, and we will most likely see Portuguese and Spanish 10-year sovereign yields falling below zero per cent.
This week will be revolving around the last Presidential debate, which is going to be held on Thursday, October the 22nd. The headlines that characterized the past trading week such as negotiations of a U.S. stimulus bill, Brexit talks and rising coronavirus cases will continue to add pressure to a tired market in the midst of corporate earnings' releases.
In the United States, national polls suggest Joe Biden is well ahead of Trump. Still, some expect Trump to come back from behind. This is why this week's presidential debate is important, especially since the previous one was cancelled due to the President contracting Covid-19 and refusing to have a virtual debate.
In terms of credit risk, at this point, the stimulus package is far more important than the U.S. elections. If Biden wins, the country will most likely not see fiscal stimulus until February 2021 adding more pressure to the economy. If that were the case, an increase in corporate defaults would be inevitable, and even though the FED continues to print money, liquidity in the bond market can dry up fast. Since the first wave of coronavirus, however, risky assets have rebounded considerably with High Yield bonds (HYG:xnas) pricing around levels previously seen at the beginning of 2019. If they suffer another blow, we can expect a recovery to be much slower the next time around. In the meantime, as the political and macro environment continues to be uncertain amid, high yield bond sales in the primary will continue to decrease. Last week we saw H.Y. bond sales declining 6% and spreads increasing a couple of basis bonds across the curve.
In Europe, Moody's downgraded the U.K.'s credit rating last Friday. Thus we will see volatility in sterling and gilts to continue to rise as Brexit negotiations intensify. Boris Johnson last week said that Great Britain should get ready for a no-deal. Added to the fact that more restrictions are implemented as coronavirus cases rise, we can expect a worsening of the country's economic conditions that will push safe heaven, gilts, higher. If you want to learn more about this topic, read our gilts analysis published last Friday.
In the meantime, central banks worldwide are telling more of the same: if needed, they will further ease the economy. The message was particularly well received by the periphery, which rallied exponentially last week. We expect ten year Spanish and Portuguese sovereign yields to fall below zero this week. Within this space, we believe that 30-year BTPs look incredibly rich and poised to tighten faster compared to its peer. We have analyzed spreads in the periphery, and you can learn more about it here.
This week’s calendar:
Monday 18th of October
Tuesday 19th of October
Wednesday 20th of October
Thursday 21st of October
Friday 22nd of October
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
