Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investment Strategist
Earnings season tempts investors to chase headlines. But preparation matters more than reacting in real time. Know the calendar, the order of reporters, and what the market already expects. With a plan, earnings season can be a tool rather than a trap.
Earnings are a catalyst, and volatility is highest around results. Traders can use options, stop-losses, or tactical positions to capture short bursts of movement. The focus is less on fundamentals, more on market reaction to surprises. Plan the setup, not the outcome. Map release time, expected move, and liquidity windows. Many trade the reaction, not the headline—let spreads and flow settle. When a stock “gaps,” it jumps from one price to another with no trades in between. A stop-market can trigger but fill far from your trigger in a gap; a stop-limit caps the worst fill but may not execute if price skips your limit. Options often deflate after results as implied volatility falls. A straddle—buying a call and a put—seeks to monetise a big move in either direction, but carries time-decay and volatility-crush risk. Run a quick post-mortem to refine the next setup.
Earnings season tests conviction. A strong thesis is reinforced by results; a weak one gets exposed. Long-term investors use reports to check durability: are margins holding? Is demand resilient? If not, it may be time to reallocate. One quarter is a health check, not a verdict. Long-term investors focus on durability: margin direction, cash generation, and whether guidance strengthens or weakens the thesis. Patterns across four or more quarters matter more than a single beat or miss. When prices swing on expectation resets, some investors use the noise to reassess position sizing and portfolio balance rather than to chase the move. Results move markets when they change the story. Read the print, then the call. Separate one-offs from run-rate. Map leader results to suppliers, customers, and sector ETFs. Strategy beats reaction because it turns a noisy season into comparable data points you can actually use.
Beyond single stocks, earnings reveal trends across industries. Rising loan losses at banks flag consumer strain. Tech firms’ capex can hint at AI or cloud growth. Industrials reporting order backlogs give clues on global demand. These signals feed into broader portfolio strategy.
Earnings season concentrates fresh information. Expectations reset, and prices follow. Short-term, it creates tradable catalysts and volatility. Long-term, it refreshes the evidence behind a thesis. Plan around the bursts, don’t chase them.
There isn’t one. Impact shifts with the cycle and sector mix. Q3 can feel heavier as firms shape year-end outlooks. Banks often set the early tone, tech grabs mid-season attention, retailers close with a clean consumer read. For traders, that means waves of liquidity and implied volatility; for investors, natural windows to reassess balance.
Read the report, then the call. Compare revenue, margins, free cash flow, and guidance to consensus and to your model. Separate one-offs from run-rate. If you trade the print, map scenarios and exits before numbers hit. If you hold through, log each quarter to track patterns across the year.
Gaps happen when price jumps between sessions. A stop-market prioritises execution but not price. A stop-limit caps price but may not fill if the market skips your level. Pre-market and after-hours trade with thinner liquidity and wider spreads. Choose based on whether execution certainty or price control matters more.
Use this checklist to prepare before results, act with discipline on the day, and review after. Pick the items that fit your horizon: traders focus on setup, liquidity, and post-print moves; long-term investors focus on trends in margins, guidance, and cash generation. The aim is simple: turn a noisy season into a repeatable process.
Close the loop each quarter: log outcomes, update sizing and alerts, and refresh the watchlist.
Earnings season is noisy by design. Preparation turns it into signal. Map the calendar, know the order, and anchor on expectations versus results. For traders, treat the print as a catalyst and respect gaps and liquidity. For long-term investors, judge durability—margin direction, cash generation, and guidance—not the headline pop. One quarter is a datapoint; several make a pattern. Discipline is the edge: read the report, listen to the call, filter one-offs, then act—or choose not to. In earnings season, preparation beats prediction.
When is earnings season? Timing and why it matters for investors