Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Saxo Group
Many people reach retirement and realise that saving was the easy part. The more demanding task is now to make that money last. When every expense depends on what you’ve already earned, uncertainty starts to grow.
That uncertainty deepens with each market swing or news headline about rising prices. The question is no longer how to grow faster but how to stay secure when conditions change. The fear of running out of funds too soon often outweighs the memory of all the years spent building up your savings.
Asset allocation in retirement offers a way to steady that ground. It defines how your money works for you, so you can live comfortably without constant worry about what the markets will do next.
During your working years, saving is tied to growth. A steady paycheck covers your daily expenses so that investments can focus on long-term opportunities. However, once retirement begins, that structure reverses. Your portfolio becomes the primary source of income, and its role shifts from building wealth to protecting it.
Asset allocation in retirement adjusts that balance. Growth assets, such as equities, still matter, but they now share the stage with bonds and cash reserves that help reduce volatility and support withdrawals. The goal is to find a mix that allows your savings to last while still providing enough exposure to growth assets to offset the impact of inflation over time.
Of course, each person’s mix depends on their lifestyle, health, and risk tolerance. Some people rely more on guaranteed income, such as pensions or annuities, while others draw directly from investments. A portfolio in retirement must ultimately serve three purposes simultaneously: generate income, preserve value, and maintain a portion for future growth.
Lastly, it’s helpful to keep in mind that asset allocation needs review as markets, spending habits, and personal circumstances change. Adjusting the mix every few years can help keep your portfolio aligned with real life, not just with your age.
Once the balance between growth and preservation is clear, the next step is to understand what each part of your portfolio actually does.
The mix of assets can vary from person to person, but the building blocks usually stay the same:
Equities remain vital because they help preserve purchasing power. Over long periods, global and dividend-focused stocks have often delivered growth that can outpace inflation (though results vary and periods of underperformance do occur). Because they can fluctuate in value, equity exposure is usually smaller in retirement than during working life. The aim is to keep your money working for growth, but without taking risks that could disrupt your regular income.
Bonds anchor the portfolio. High-quality government and corporate bonds can provide predictable income and reduce the impact of stock market fluctuations. Many retirees use bond ladders (holding bonds that mature at staggered dates) to balance stability and liquidity. Pension payments and annuities can play a bond-like role, offering a steady stream of income. The reliability of that income depends on the provider’s financial strength, the specific terms of the product, and whether the payments rise with inflation or stay fixed.
Cash reserves provide immediate access to funds without needing to sell investments during downturns. Keeping one to three years of essential expenses in cash or short-term instruments, such as money market funds or short-duration, high-quality bonds, can be helpful, depending on your other income sources, spending flexibility and portfolio risk. However, too much cash can lose value to inflation over time.
Inflation-linked bonds (for example, index-linked gilts) can add resilience because their returns rise with inflation. Some infrastructure funds and conservative real estate investment trusts may also help, as their revenues can adjust through pricing power or rent increases, although this is not guaranteed. Together, these types of assets can support purchasing power over long retirements.
Tax treatment and inflation both influence how the assets above perform over time. However, tax treatment varies from country to country. In some systems, income-heavy assets may be more efficient in tax-sheltered accounts, while growth assets may suit taxable accounts; in others (such as ISAs), sheltering can apply to both. Check local rules before structuring holdings.
Retirement can span decades, and the right mix of assets at 60 rarely remains the same at 80. As needs, health, and goals evolve, your asset allocation should evolve too. The objective is to achieve sufficient stability to protect your income and enough growth to prevent your savings from eroding in real terms.
Most people start retirement with a balanced approach, then gradually move toward more conservative mixes as they age. This process can follow a general pattern, although personal factors such as lifestyle, spending flexibility, and other income sources will always influence the details.
For many, the first decade of retirement still carries a long-term horizon. A mix of around 60% equities, 35% bonds, and 5% cash can help maintain growth while keeping withdrawals stable. Growth assets offset inflation, while bonds and cash provide income and liquidity for regular spending.
As health and spending patterns become clearer, portfolios often shift to roughly 40% equities, 50% bonds, and 10% cash. This structure cushions short-term market swings while retaining moderate exposure to growth assets that can support you for another 20 years or more.
At this stage, reducing complexity matters as much as returns. A conservative mix (about 25% equities, 55% bonds, and 20% cash) focuses on steady income and liquidity. Some may prefer annuities or shorter-term bonds for their reliability, especially if they no longer wish to manage withdrawals actively.
After decades of saving, most retirees prefer to play it safe. Yet many of the most significant risks appear when caution turns into hesitation.
The following mistakes often limit how long your savings can last in retirement:
Reducing risk too early may seem responsible, but a portfolio made mostly of cash or short-term bonds can lose value each year to inflation. Maintaining some growth exposure through equities can help you protect your purchasing power and prevent savings from depleting.
Cash creates comfort but not always progress. Keeping one to three years of essential expenses is practical and often necessary, but larger balances reduce your ability to benefit from long-term growth and can shorten the life of your portfolio.
Inflation compounds quietly. Over the course of two decades, even small increases can double your living costs. Exposure to growth or inflation-linked assets can help your income stay aligned with real prices.
When markets move sharply, portfolios drift away from their intended mix. Rebalancing at regular intervals (selling a portion of assets that have grown and adding to those that have lagged) restores balance and controls hidden risk, but consider transaction costs and taxes when choosing frequency and thresholds.
Life changes faster than most plans. Health costs, inheritances, or lifestyle shifts can all alter your spending patterns. Reviewing your mix every few years ensures your portfolio reflects your actual life, not assumptions from a decade ago.
Retirement gives you time, but it also tests how well your money can support this special chapter of life. Every choice about allocation reflects a simple goal: your peace of mind.
Balance is what can help keep that peace intact. Growth assets may help your savings hold their strength over the years, while stable ones could keep you calm through uncertain periods. When that mix feels right for you, you can stop worrying about market noise and volatility, and hopefully start focusing on what life actually looks like day-to-day.
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