Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Saxo Group
This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk. You may lose some, all, or more of your investment.
For traders exploring forex, the market can seem complicated, especially because of its sheer size. With daily turnover often estimated at more than USD 7 trillion (though this figure can change over time) across a wide range of market participants, forex is highly liquid when trading the most widely traded currencies.
Leverage is often used in an attempt to amplify potential profits because daily swings in exchange rates are usually modest in percentage terms, often 1% or less, depending on market conditions. But the risks of significant loss also rise with the use of leverage.
It’s important to know that forex trading isn’t just about buying and selling currencies without aim or reason. Many factors can influence how currencies move, from policy to investment flows, geopolitics and other factors. The focus and narrative can often shift as well, meaning that what was important this year might not be important next year.
Trading strategies need to adapt to the market narrative and market conditions, for example whether markets are quiet and rangebound, smoothly trending, or choppy and erratic.
In this guide, we’ll break things down to help you get a solid first grasp of forex trading. You’ll learn the basics, explore the different types of markets, and follow a straightforward plan to get started.
Forex trading, or foreign exchange trading, is the process of buying and selling currencies on the global market. Unlike stock trading, which involves shares of companies, forex trading focuses on exchanging one currency for another, so you are always simultaneously buying one currency and selling another.
This happens in pairs, such as EUR/USD, where euros are traded against US dollars. As noted above, the value of these currencies can fluctuate based on any number of factors, from changes in interest rates prompted by economic data or central bank decisions to government policy and geopolitical and other events.
Key points to know about forex trading:
Forex trading serves a few purposes:
While forex trading offers opportunities, it also comes with significant risks. The market's size and global reach mean prices can change rapidly, influenced by economic indicators, policy decisions, and unexpected events. A solid understanding of these factors is crucial for anyone looking to start trading forex successfully.
Understanding the different types of forex markets is crucial for anyone who is learning about forex trading. Here's a brief overview of some terms you may encounter when trading currencies:
The spot market is one of the most straightforward types of forex trading. In institutional FX, currencies are bought and sold for delivery based on the current market price; in retail trading, ‘spot’ exposure is often provided via leveraged products (for example rolling spot FX/CFDs), rather than physical delivery. These are complex leveraged products and can lead to rapid and significant losses, potentially exceeding the initial margin placed on a trade. Institutional spot FX transactions are typically settled within two business days (some pairs differ); retail ‘spot’ products may be rolled over rather than physically settled.
In the forward market, traders agree to buy or sell currencies at a future date for a price agreed upon today. This type of market is typically used for hedging against future price fluctuations. Contracts in the forward market are customised between parties, allowing businesses to manage currency risk effectively.
The futures market is similar to the forward market but with standardised contracts that are traded on regulated exchanges. These contracts lock in the price of a currency at a set date in the future, providing a more structured environment compared to the forward market.
The options market allows traders the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell currencies at a specific price before a certain date. This market provides flexibility and is often used by more experienced traders to manage potential risks while keeping their options open.
These are the key types of forex markets you'll encounter. Each serves different purposes, but it can be wise to focus on the spot market first.
Starting your journey in forex trading can seem daunting at first, but breaking it down into manageable steps can hopefully make it easier to understand.
Here's a step-by-step guide to help you get started:
Your first step in forex trading is selecting a trustworthy broker. Look for one that is regulated by reputable financial authorities, offers a user-friendly platform, and provides educational resources to help you learn the ropes. Check the available currency pairs, fees, and spreads to ensure they align with your trading goals.
Once you've chosen a broker, you'll need to open a trading account. Most brokers offer different types of accounts depending on your experience level and initial investment. If you’re new to trading forex, a demo account allows you to practice trading without risking real money.
Before you start trading, it's crucial to understand the basics. Familiarise yourself with key forex terminology, market mechanics, and the factors influencing currency prices. Understanding concepts like pips, spreads, leverage, and margins will help you understand the mechanics of trading and the amount of risk you are taking in the market.
One important additional concept is that of holding costs, especially those related to interest rate differentials or “carry”. When you hold a forex position overnight, your account may be credited or charged a small amount known as a rollover or swap. This typically reflects (among other factors) the interest rate difference between the two currencies in the pair you are trading. If you hold a currency with a higher interest rate against one with a lower rate, you may earn a positive “carry”, while if the opposite is true, you pay a cost. These amounts vary daily and can affect trading results over time, especially for positions held for long periods of time and where the interest rate difference between the two currencies is large.
A well-thought-out trading plan is essential for success in forex. This plan should outline your financial goals, risk tolerance, and preferred trading strategies. Decide how much you are willing to risk per trade and stick to your plan, even when emotions run high.
Some forex traders consider starting with major currency pairs like EUR/USD or GBP/USD. These pairs are highly liquid, meaning they're easier to buy and sell quickly, and they generally have lower spreads. Focusing on a few pairs can potentially help you from becoming overwhelmed.
This involves both technical analysis—using charts and indicators to predict price movements—and fundamental analysis, which looks at economic factors and news events that could affect currency values. Combining both types of analysis can give you a more comprehensive view of the market.
When you're ready, start placing trades based on your analysis and trading plan. Decide whether to buy (go long) or sell (go short) a currency pair depending on your expectations of its price movement. Use limit orders, stop-loss orders, and take-profit orders to help manage your risk and set exit levels.
Once your trades are live, it's crucial to monitor them regularly. Markets can be volatile, so be prepared to make adjustments when necessary. Stay informed of the latest market news and be ready to adapt your strategy if the market conditions change. This includes monitoring any overnight financing or rollover charges, which can add up if positions are held for extended periods.
After you close a trade, take time to review the outcome. Analyse what went well and where you could improve. Keeping a trading journal can be an effective way to track your progress and improve your strategies.
The amount you need to start forex trading varies, based on your goals, risk tolerance, and the broker you choose. Many brokers have minimum deposit requirements, often ranging from USD 50 to several hundred dollars. Starting with a smaller amount may help limit risk, especially while you’re still learning.
Leverage is another factor to consider since it allows you to control larger positions with less capital. For instance, with 50:1 leverage, a USD 1,000 investment could control USD 50,000 in currency. However, such leverage levels can materially increase risk; many traders who are just getting started choose significantly lower leverage while they are still learning.
It’s also advisable to invest only what you can afford to lose. Keep in mind the additional costs like spreads, commissions, and swap fees for holding positions overnight, as these can affect your overall trading budget.
If trading is described as commission-free, remember this does not mean cost-free (spreads and/or other charges may apply). With some brokers you can start with a micro account with as little as USD 100, but if a broker charges a commission for trade sizes below a threshold like EURUSD 50,000, that commission can be a sizable portion of the overall profit or loss on a single trade.
For example, even for a small commission of USD 1 per trade, that represents a full pip when trading 10,000 EURUSD. This means if the price moves from 1.1501 to 1.1502, buying and then selling immediately costs USD 2 (outside of the spread or any profit or loss on the trade) or 0.2% of a USD 1,000 account or 0.4% of a USD 500 account. Depending on your trading frequency and the fee schedule, a larger starting balance may be more cost-effective where minimum commissions apply.
A well-defined strategy is essential in forex trading, especially when starting out. No matter the strategy, a trader should always know the exit point, or stop level, before entering a trade. This is a level that represents two things: 1) the overall amount the trader is willing to risk on a single trade and 2) a level that indicates the strategy that was employed is wrong and the trade needs to be taken off to limit further loss.
Here are some basic strategies:
This is one of the simplest and most popular forex strategies. It involves identifying the direction of the market and trading in that direction. Traders look for upward (bullish) or downward (bearish) trends and open positions that align with the trend. Of course, not all trends last forever, and the risk is that a trader buys when the trend is about to end.
For example, if the EUR/USD is consistently moving upwards, a trend trader would buy, anticipating further upward movement.
In range trading, a trader identifies price levels where a currency pair repeatedly moves between high and low points within a range —called support and resistance levels. The goal is to buy at the support level (the lowest price) and sell at the resistance level (the highest price). This strategy works best in stable markets without significant price breakouts. The risk with range trading, as with other strategies, is that the range fails to persist and that prices rise or fall out of the range, resulting in a loss.
Breakout trading focuses on entering the market when a currency pair breaks out of a predefined range or pattern, such as a triangle or horizontal channel. The idea is to catch the start of a new trend early. This strategy requires good timing and can be profitable if the price continues in the direction of the breakout, but the risk is one of a “false” breakout in which the move fails to persist and reverts back to the prior trading range, resulting in a loss.
Scalping is a short-term strategy where traders aim to profit from small price changes within a short period. Positions are held for minutes or even seconds. Due to the high frequency of trades, scalping can be intense and requires a lot of attention, especially to any trading costs and average profits. Those new to forex may want to avoid scalping unless they have honed a technique that yields consistent results. Always keep in mind that intraday patterns can also change, resulting in a losing strategy.
Swing trading falls somewhere between day trading and long-term investing. Positions are held for a few days to weeks, allowing traders to take advantage of medium-term price movements. This strategy combines both technical and fundamental analysis to identify potential swings in the market.
Leverage may need to be lowered in swing trading to allow more room for price swings before the trade is proven right or wrong. It’s also important to consider the carry, or interest rate differential, between the two currencies in an exchange rate, which can incur holding costs for daily rollovers of the trade.
This is a longer-term strategy where traders hold positions for weeks or even months. Position traders focus on long-term trends and typically ignore day-to-day market fluctuations. This method requires patience and a deep understanding of market fundamentals, making it more suitable for traders just starting out who have a long-term focus. Lower leverage is also typical of position trading.
While forex trading offers significant opportunities, it's equally important to recognise the associated risks. Here are a few significant ones to consider:
The forex market can be highly volatile, with currency prices capable of changing rapidly in response to economic data, geopolitical events, or sudden market sentiment shifts. This volatility can lead to substantial gains but also significant losses, particularly if trades are highly leveraged.
Leverage allows you to control a large position with a relatively small amount of capital. While this can increase profits, it can also magnify losses. For instance, with 30:1 leverage, a 2% market move against your position could wipe out more than half of your entire investment. Traders who are still learning about forex should use leverage cautiously and understand the full extent of the risks involved.
Since forex trading is typically conducted through brokers, there's a risk that the broker might default or fail to meet its obligations. This is mainly a concern with unregulated or offshore brokers. To mitigate this risk, it's crucial to trade through well-regulated brokers with a strong reputation in the industry.
Currency values are influenced by interest rate differentials between countries. There are two sources of risk linked to interest rates. First is the risk of significant market volatility risk from any sudden change in interest rates from surprise developments, whether from economic data or central bank decisions. Traders need to stay informed about interest rate trends, important economic data releases and central bank meetings and expectations of what they will deliver, as these can directly impact forex positions.
The second interest rate risk is the risk of “carry”, or the interest rate differential between the two currencies in an exchange rate for any positions held for any significant period of time.
For example, if a trader buys Currency A vs. Currency B, and A has short-term interest rate of 1% and B has an interest rate of 4%, the trader will pay the interest rate differential via daily rollovers – an annualized cost of 3% times whatever leverage is employed. So at ten times leverage, the trade would cost an annualized 30%, or more than 2% per month. If both currencies have very similar interest rates, carry considerations are less important.
While major currency pairs usually offer high liquidity, there can be times, especially during off-market hours or in less popular currency pairs, where liquidity drops. This can result in wider spreads and slippage, where trades are executed at a different price than expected, leading to potential losses. In addition, rare catastrophic events can result in discontinuous pricing, where prices gap over a weekend or even during trading hours.
Trading forex can be stressful, especially in a highly volatile market. Fear, desire for gain, and overconfidence can cloud judgement, leading to impulsive decisions. It's important to maintain emotional discipline, stick to your trading plan, and avoid making decisions based on emotions.
The global FX market is decentralised and regulation varies by jurisdiction. Different countries have varying levels of regulation, which can affect the investor protections available and the risks you face. Choosing a broker in a well-regulated jurisdiction can help mitigate this risk.
Economic data and central bank policy comments and announcements and geopolitical events can cause sudden and unpredictable movements in the forex market. Traders should be aware of the economic calendar and be prepared for potential volatility during major news releases or developments.
If you’re new to forex trading, it can help to keep things simple. It’s important to learn the basics, such as the different markets, the most traded pairs, and getting to know some of the simpler trading strategies.
Starting small, or trying a demo account, may help you learn more without risking any real money. Once you have built up some experience and feel more confident, you can figure out how to proceed and decide what your long-term goals are.
No matter which stage of the journey you are on, it is essential to keep learning as you go, and not to forget that patience and discipline are a major part of forex trading.