Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Macro Digest: The UK General Election finally agreed, Brexit not so much
Steen Jakobsen
Chief Investment Officer
Summary: Labour leader Corbyn today "caved" in and will vote for motion to call General Election tonight.
When: December 9, 10 or 11th.
Background: PM Johnson has been unable to sell his Brexit deal, now he is seeking a new mandate through a General Election.
Macro Impact: More time will pass before we get back to the issue Brexit – EU has granted a delay until January 31st. PM Johnson wants clear political mandate and the polls right now support him.
Market Impact: Market reaction muted – FTSE selling off slightly, while GBP came in bid post announcement breaking. (see charts below)
Conclusion: It increases chances of Brexit being passed by January 31st, but... it comes at the worst price – continued pause in real economic agenda’s in Europe and in the UK. UK credit-impulse will drag down UK growth through end of Q1-2020 setting up major expansionary policy from “newly elected PM Johnson” in 2020. Will UK be first in using MMT? We think so...
Background: PM Johnson has been unable to sell his Brexit deal, now he is seeking a new mandate through a General Election.
Macro Impact: More time will pass before we get back to the issue Brexit – EU has granted a delay until January 31st. PM Johnson wants clear political mandate and the polls right now support him.
Market Impact: Market reaction muted – FTSE selling off slightly, while GBP came in bid post announcement breaking. (see charts below)
Conclusion: It increases chances of Brexit being passed by January 31st, but... it comes at the worst price – continued pause in real economic agenda’s in Europe and in the UK. UK credit-impulse will drag down UK growth through end of Q1-2020 setting up major expansionary policy from “newly elected PM Johnson” in 2020. Will UK be first in using MMT? We think so...
The latest POLLS in the UK: https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/
Conservatives @ 37%
Labour @ 24%
Lib. Dems @ 17%
We think that the end result will be a higher POLL for Liberal Democrats due to their clear stance on BREXIT, but more to come as election is called...
Hourly GBP:
Hourly FTSE CFD:
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
The Fed launched a new easing cycle in late Q3. Will this cycle now play out like 2000 or 2007? -
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting... -
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist