: December 9, 10 or 11th. Background
: PM Johnson has been unable to sell his Brexit deal, now he is seeking a new mandate through a General Election. Macro Impact
: More time will pass before we get back to the issue
Brexit – EU has granted a delay until January 31st. PM Johnson wants clear political mandate and the polls right now support him. Market Impact
: Market reaction muted – FTSE selling off slightly, while GBP came in bid post announcement breaking. (see charts below) Conclusion
: It increases chances of Brexit being passed by January 31st, but... it comes at the worst price – continued pause in real economic agenda’s in Europe and in the UK. UK credit-impulse will drag down UK growth through end of Q1-2020 setting up major expansionary policy
from “newly elected PM Johnson” in 2020. Will UK be first in using MMT? We think so...