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FX Breakout Monitor: Risk-off fades again, USD broadly stronger

Forex 5 minutes to read

John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  Risk sentiment has managed to maintain an even keel on the latest US-China trade news and through today’s US economic data. This has seen a broadly firm US dollar, together with firmness in oil-related currencies like NOK and CAD. On the weak side, GBP and AUD continue to suck wind.

A brief update today (we will return with the monitor next week as Friday is a holiday here in Denmark). Most interesting development today has been the USD and CAD rising back to the top as risk appetite has largely brushed off causes for fresh concern on the US-China trade tensions front (the blacklisting of Huawei). In the weak column today we have especially sterling and the AUD.

Breakout signal tracker

Will review opportunities early next week – for now, just keeping the lone open AUDUSD short.
Source: Saxo Bank
Today’s FX Breakout monitor

Page 1: the JPY crosses a bit less heavy today as risk appetite has managed to so far brush off bad news. Sterling has been on a blistering run lower and bumps up against the 200-day moving average soon in EURGBP.
Source: Saxo Bank
Page 2: NOK resurgent on strong oil prices and on the cusp of new highs versus the SEK. No consistent message from EM, though we have noted a rise in credit spreads against EM’s favour. The gold rally so far a one-day wonder and looking more so if the price action fades well back below 1290.
Source: Saxo Bank
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