Singapore Sales Trader
Summary: We may not have reached the inflection point where the marginal risk-reward favours bears more than bulls just yet, but we are getting ever so close to that moment of truth.
We are at a critical stage of the market cycle with multiple headline risks opening up a wide array of possibilities from here. Will US-China trade war escalate further or end in a sooner-than-anticipated truce? Will the Federal Reserve march ahead with its projected dot plot hikes into 2019 or pause after the December hike? How long will the likely EU-Italy collision on the Italian budget issue last? Will there be a Brexit deal before the close of the year or will both parties borrow more time for negotiation by extending the transition period by another year? Will Theresa May survive as PM through all these uncertainties? What is going on with Saudi Arabia? Is Trump going to penalise Riyadh for an extraordinary overreach of power or use it as a bargaining chip to get the Saudis to increase crude production and drive oil prices down? All these questions have massive implications depending which way the tide turns.
But underneath the headline agendas, there is a substantial risk floating slightly under the market’s radar which is following a structural trend with little hope of any dramatic correction – the big, booming US budget deficit.
The market is trying to get back to the pre-Covid and pre-war times, but that model is broken. A new dawn is here and the financial world needs to adapt.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
A political switch in China towards less tough control of its people and companies may kick things back into gear.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
While the economic situation in Europe may not be as bad as feared, there's still a plethora of things to fix.
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
As the world turns increasingly bipolar, equity markets face harsh times as they transition into the new reality.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
New alliances and collaborations outside of China may lead to prosperous times in Asia.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
For years, it was thought that the balanced portfolio was a thing of the past. But recent developments may have changed that.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
2023 could be a tough year for currencies but EUR and JPY may have some upside.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
The commodity-heavy Australian market may have a good start to 2023, as the Chinese focus on growth signals demand for Aussie resources.
Jessica Amir,
Market Strategist
From a near-perfect environment for speculative assets before 2022 to the opposite, crypto faces fundamental challenges.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
