Quick Take Asia

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – July 09, 2025

Macro 6 minutes to read
Saxo Be Invested
APAC Research

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – July 9, 2025

Key points:

  • Macro: Lutnick expects 15-20 trade letters to be sent over next 2 days
  • Equities:  Hong Kong and Europe rises but US is flat
  • FX: USD gains; AUD rises after RBA holds rates steady
  • Commodities: Copper futures hit record high after Trump announces 50% tariff
  • Fixed income: T-Notes yields increase; US auctions 3-year notes at 3.891%

------------------------------------------------------------------

qt 0907

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro: 

  • Trump confirmed no changes to duties on 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, introduced a 50% tariff on copper imports, and signaled more sector-specific tariffs. He also threatened up to 200% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, with implementation delayed by 12 to 18 months.
  • In June 2025, US 1 year consumer inflation expectations dropped to 3%. Commodity price expectations rose for gas (4.2%), medical care (9.3%), college education (9.1%), and rent (9.1%).
  • RBA held its cash rate at 3.85%, defying expectations for a cut. The decision was supported by six members, citing balanced inflation risks and a strong labour market. The board remains cautious amid uncertainties and will await more data to confirm inflation's return to the 2.5% target.
  • Taiwan's trade surplus rose to USD 12.07 billion from USD 4.70 billion. Exports reached USD 53.32 billion, led by information, communication, and audio-video products (82.5%) and electronic parts (31.1%). Exports grew to the US, ASEAN, Japan, and China & Hong Kong, but fell to Europe.

Equities:

  • US - US stocks remained mostly unchanged on Tuesday amid mixed signals from President Trump regarding tariffs. Initially postponing "Liberation Day" duties to August 1, Trump later announced no further extensions, adding to trade uncertainty. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed flat, while the Dow dropped 165 points. Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports caused copper futures to surge over 10%, boosting shares of Freeport-McMoran and Southern Copper. Pharmaceutical stocks reduced gains after Trump hinted at a 200% tariff on foreign drugs, with a potential one-year grace period. Tesla rose 1.3%, while Amazon fell 1.8% as its Prime Day began. Investors are looking forward to the Fed's June meeting minutes on Wednesday and Delta Air Lines' earnings later in the week.
  • EU - European stocks rose sharply on Tuesday as markets considered the impact of US tariffs on European exports. The Eurozone's STOXX 50 rose by 0.5% to 5,370, and the STOXX 600 climbed 0.4% to 545. The US imposed tariffs on various Asian countries but excluded the EU from these measures, highlighting comments by EU officials suggesting a possible 10% US tariff. Auto makers like BMW and Stellantis benefited, rising by 2% and 3%, respectively, due to the adverse effects on Asian competitors. UniCredit gained 1.9% amid expectations that the EU will reject Italy's conditions for its takeover of Banco BPM. Novo Nordisk, outside the Eurozone, surged by 2%.
  • HK - Hang Seng rose 1.1% to close at 24,148 on Tuesday, marking its first gain in four sessions. Market sentiment improved after China's leaders vowed to tighten oversight on aggressive price cuts, a move expected to support a rebound in producer prices and enhance long-term earnings. The tech index jumped 1.8%, aided by optimistic profit alerts from various firms, while consumer stocks benefited from optimism over increased demand due to subsidies from food delivery services. Leading advances were Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (4.4%), BYD Electronic (3.3%), SMIC (3.2%), and Meituan (2.6%).

FX:

  • USD experienced modest gains with varied performance against its G10 currency peers. Dollar Index (DXY) rose above the 97.5 level as market participants looked forward to FOMC Minutes set to be released on Wednesday.
  • AUD rose to above 0.6540 after the RBA unexpectedly kept interest rates at 3.85%, defying expectations of a cut. The RBA's statement showed a balanced view on inflation, indicating they could wait for more data. Governor Bullock expressed confidence in the potential for further easing.
  • CHF and EUR gained against the Dollar, with the Euro's focus on trade updates. Reports suggested the US proposed a 10% tariff deal to the EU, though negotiations are ongoing. Trump indicated positive discussions with the EU.
  • JPY weakened past 146 against USD as US tariffs on Japanese goods dampened sentiment. Ahead of the July 20th elections, Japanese officials, led by Prime Minister Ishiba, vowed to defend national interests despite Trump's threats of retaliation.
  • Economic calendar – China Inflation Rate, China PPI, US MBA 30-year Mortgage Rate, US FOMC Minutes

Commodities:

  • Crude oil extended Monday's gains, with WTI and Brent prices influenced by US trade letters and geopolitical developments, including resumed ceasefire talks in Doha. Prices rose with US trading, peaking at $68.91 and $70.68.
  • Copper futures jumped over 10% to above $5.5 per pound after President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports. This move aims to enhance domestic production and aligns copper duties with existing steel and aluminium tariffs, heightening trade tensions and market volatility.

Fixed income:

  • T-Notes saw increased yields as focus shifted to supply and trade updates. Settlement yields rose: 2-year at 3.907%, 5-year at 3.985%, 10-year at 4.415%, and 20-year and 30-year at 4.944%. The US auctioned USD 58 billion in 3-year notes at a 3.891% yield, with an average 0.4bps tail.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.