Global Market Quick Take: Asia – July 10, 2025

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – July 10, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: Trump sets new tariffs on 7 countries and Fed expects cut this year
• Equities: US trades higher and Nvidia hits 4 trillion
• FX: USDJPY retreats from 147
• Commodities: Gold rebounds from 1 week low to $3,321
• Fixed income: Treasury auction catches a bid

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• President Trump set new tariffs on seven countries, including 20% for the Philippines, 25% for Brunei and Moldova, and 30% for Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka.
• Most Fed officials see a rate cut as likely this year, citing temporary inflation pressures and potential economic softening, June FOMC minutes show. Some support an early cut, while others prefer no change in 2025.
• US mortgage applications jumped 9.4% in early July, the biggest weekly gain in a month, per Mortgage Bankers' Association data. It marked a third straight weekly rise—the longest streak since December 2024—as mortgage rates fell to their lowest since April.
• China’s consumer prices rose 0.1% in June, ending a three-month decline and beating expectations of no change. It was the first annual inflation uptick since January, driven by e-commerce sales, government subsidies, and easing U.S. trade tensions.

Equities: 

• US - US stocks rose Wednesday as investors assessed the impact of new tariffs and Fed policy signals. The S&P 500 gained 0.6%, the Dow rose 217 points, and the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.7%, boosted by tech stocks like Nvidia, which briefly hit a $4T valuation. Fed minutes showed officials viewed the new tariffs as inflationary, delaying rate cuts. President Trump expanded tariffs to more countries, including the Philippines and Iraq, with steep duties on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.  Coinbase and MicroStrategy rose 5.3% and 4.6% respectively after Bitcoin trades towards all-time highs.
• Hong Kong - HSI fell 1.1% reversing prior gains amid weak Chinese data. Consumer prices rose slightly, but deflation risks remained, while producer prices saw their steepest drop in two years. Losses were broad, led by tech, property, and consumer stocks. Henderson Land plunged 8.6% after a bond issue, with Sun Hung Kai (-3.1%), Meituan (-2.5%), and Xiaomi (-2.0%) also down.
• Germany - DAX rose over 1% Wednesday, hitting a record high above 24,500, driven by defensive stocks and optimism over EU-US trade talks. President Trump signaled progress, saying he may soon notify the EU of expected export rates, while the European Commission aims for a deal by week’s end.

FX:

• USD was mixed on Wednesday, holding steady overall amid a lack of major data, while gaining late against the BRL after President Trump announced a 50% tariff and a Section 301 probe over Brazil’s digital trade practices. The FOMC minutes had little market impact. The EURUSD edged lower on mixed trade signals, with the EU not expecting a tariff letter. GBPUSD was volatile around 1.3600 as PM Starmer reaffirmed no tax hikes. Meanwhile, the JPY strengthened, recovering earlier losses as USDJPY retreated from the 147.00 level.
• Economic calendar – US Initial Jobless Claims, US Fed Speech

Commodities:

• Gold rose to $3,321 rebounding from a one-week low. Oil prices were flat, with WTI crude up $68.38 despite a bearish EIA report showing a surprise 7.1M barrel inventory build vs. a forecasted 2.1M draw. Copper eased to $5.50/lb after hitting a record $5.70, still up 10% on the week, as Trump announced a 50% tariff on the metal, though details on timing and scope remain unclear.

Fixed income:

• The U.S. Treasury sold $39B in 10-year notes at 4.362%, slightly below the 4.365% when-issued level, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.61. Indirect bidders took 65.42%, direct 23.7%, and primary dealers 10.87%, helping push yields lower.

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