Macro Dragon WK # 34: Nvidia Earnings, RBNZ hikes, FOMC & RBA Mins, Powell Tues, US Retail & Afghanistan Macro Dragon WK # 34: Nvidia Earnings, RBNZ hikes, FOMC & RBA Mins, Powell Tues, US Retail & Afghanistan Macro Dragon WK # 34: Nvidia Earnings, RBNZ hikes, FOMC & RBA Mins, Powell Tues, US Retail & Afghanistan

Macro Dragon WK # 34: Nvidia Earnings, RBNZ hikes, FOMC & RBA Mins, Powell Tues, US Retail & Afghanistan

Macro 8 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Quasi-Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon WK # 34: Nvidia Earnings, RBNZ hikes, FOMC & RBA Mins, Powell Tues, US Retail & Afghanistan

Top of Mind…

  • TGIM & welcome to WK #34
  • As we switch into the 2nd half of Aug, this wk is likely to be dominated by earnings out of the US (including also some key China names like Tencent, ACB, CCB, CLI), we likely have a rate hike from the RBNZ, mins out of the FOMC & RBA, Powell speaking on Tues & the continued finger pointing on Afghanistan as the country “falls” to the Taliban in a matter of days.
  • The continued focus on the Delta variant goes without saying, yet one can easily see how places like China will adjust the indefensible zero-tolerance policy for Covid. May have made sense to be doing the hammer & dance pre vaccine, yet its death through a thousand cuts to think a country can exist in that game for years. Is it enough of the Hammer & Dance Strategy & time to just step through the imperfect Covid-Gateway?
  • Singapore itself which is emerging from restrictions is now clocking +75% vaccination rates (both jabs + wks from 2nd jab is qualification for being fully vaccinated here), which make you wonder if a stronger SGD is worth taking a look at… perhaps against the AUD, EUR, SEK or USD? Hmm… The government here has flagged that its time for a sustainable strategy against a Covid infected world.
  • There are no smooth pathways in a covid constrained world, yet there is only one eventual imperfect gateway that all nations have to step through.
  • On earnings, Garnry weighs in on Chip maker Nvidia as well as the overall robust earnings that we continue to have. He points out that whilst the MSCI world YoY EPS at c. +200% can be explained by a low base from a year ago, the QoQ erns growth is +8.4% or +34% an. With rev growth so far outpacing the growth in costs, which we have seen many companies mentioning inflationary pressures.
  • Tue is packed; in addition to RBA mins (likely tail-risk is to the hawkish side, so small delta for stronger Aussie, higher Aussie yields), Powell will be speaking at an educational event, & US retail sales data will also be on the cards.
  • The last two Fridays in the US have had knee-jerk reactions of first pushing the dollar & yields higher on the strong NFP beat from 6 Aug (943k a, 870Ke, +88k r with U/r 5.4%a 5.7%e 5.9%p), then taking them lower on 13 Aug due to a UoM sentiment miss 70.2a 81.2e/p. These data points should not have the same magnitude of staying impact on either the USD or US Yields – the jobs numbers are way more contingent on what the Fed is going to do.
  • Its worth digesting that last wk, also saw the first break in a string of 5 month beats in US inflation. US MoM CPI was 0.5%a/e 0.9%p, vs Core that missed 0.3%a 0.4%e 0.9%. The YoY figures actually beat. So the transitory camp gets a bit of straws to hang onto for now. From now until Jackson Hole look out for 2nd reading on 2Q GDP, retail sales, IP, Capacity Utilization, Flash PMIs, Personal Spending & Personal Income data.
  • It doesn’t feel like Powell (Fed) have much wiggle room to turn around, from committing to tapering. The consensus view, ‘seems’ to be that it will be announced in the Nov 3 meeting. So Jackson Hole or even Sep 22, may be earlier than some expect. From the Dragon’s view point, its now the path of least embarrassment from the Fed. Not to mention that the law of large numbers (& no more stemies) favour jobs data accelerating into year end.
  • Central Banks: RBNZ 0.50%e 0.25%p, BI 3.50%e/p, Norges 0.00%e/p  
  • RBA mins out on Tue, FOMC Mins out on Wed. Skew on the former is likely to the hawkish side, as the delta variant suppresses the hawks. Skew or more likely focus on the later will be around the usual tapering (hints on timing & structure) & inflation.
  • Kaplan could be worth watching as well this wk.
  • Econ data: CH monthly growth data pretty misses across all four metrics of FAI, IP, RS & U/R – this really should be no surprise, as its been clear for wks now that the world’s 2nd largest economy is slowing down. On the Macro Dragon (as per our latest quarterly), KVP is expecting a lot more accommodation in China policy into year-end – which should set-up for a nice divergence from a generally tightening US policy (subject to the $3.5T making it through the House).
  • US will have Retail sales, IP & weekly jobs data. AU will have big jobs data on Thu. With retail sales being also thematic in the UK & CA, whereby inflation figures are also due – as well as the broader EZ block.     
  • Holidays: No major bank holidays out there.

Recent Works to Keep In Heavy Rotation


Start<>End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Position.

This is The Way



The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region


Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.