Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Chief Investment Officer
Summary: The US equity market rolled over to the downside in an ugly late slide that saw the worst day for the market in over a week on no specific catalyst. Elsewhere, NOK rallied on a major stimulus announcement, and the kiwi sold off as the RBNZ surprised with new QE and a hint at negative rates. Today US Fed Chair Powell is set to speak
What is our trading focus?
What is going on?
The US Federal programme to begin purchasing Bond ETFs started yesterday, with the major LQD bond ETF of investment grade debt jumping well over a percent at the open before closing some 0.3% off the highs.
Investment legend Stanley Druckenmiller was out with a very negative outlook in a talk before the Economic Club of New York in which he cast heavy doubt on the potential for a V-shaped recovery and said that the equity market was poorly priced for risk/reward, though he liked the potential for long/short plays in the market.
What we are watching next?
US Fed Chair Powell is set to speak today in a webinar hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, discussing “Current Economic Issues” and there will be a question and answer session. This could see the market highly reactive to any surprise comments from the Fed Chair.
Economic Calendar Highlights (times GMT)
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