Market Quick Take – 26 September 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: U.S. fell on firm data cutting October cut odds; Europe slid as yields rose and med-tech sank; Asia mixed with Hong Kong softer and mainland firmer
• Volatility: VIX jumps; PCE inflation in focus; options show rising bullish positioning
• Digital Assets: BTC stable; ETHA and IBIT fall; ETF flows, stablecoins and CLARITY Act in spotlight
• Fixed Income: US yields rise on latest weekly claims data, weak 7-yr treasury auction
• Currencies: USD firms sharply on latest jobless claims number
• Commodities: Strong month led by industrial and precious metals, and energy
• Macro events: US Aug. PCE Inflation & US Final Sep. University of Michigan Sentiment

Macro headlines

• US growth was revised to 3.8% annualised in Q2, the fastest in almost two years, on stronger consumer spending. The rebound followed a Q1 contraction, with consumption up 2.5% annualised and business investment rising 7.3%. Looking ahead, forecasters expect some pickup in 2026, helped by Trump’s tax law and lower interest rates, though growth is still seen sub-2% over the next few years.
• US initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000 in the third week of September, beating expectations of 235,000, the lowest in two months. Unemployment claims dropped to 1,926,000 in the second week, the lowest since late May.
• SNB held its policy rate at 0.0% in Q3 and is ready to intervene in FX markets, if necessary, with inflation forecasts unchanged.
• European diplomats warned Moscow that NATO will respond forcefully to any further airspace violations, including shooting down Russian aircraft. Russia denies breaching Estonian airspace or testing NATO, saying its flights follow international rules. Recent incursions on NATO’s eastern flank have tested the alliance’s resolve, splitting leaders between caution and calls for tougher action.
• US durable goods orders rose 2.9% to $312.1 billion in August 2025, exceeding expectations despite tariff effects. Transport equipment, especially defense (+50.1%) and nondefense aircraft (+21.6%), led the increase, with gains in machinery and metal products but a decline in computers.
• Trump announced new import tariffs effective Oct. 1: 50% on kitchen cabinets, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks. He cited national security and the protection of domestic industry from foreign-made products "flooding the United States." Also a 100% duty on branded or patented pharmaceuticals, unless a company is building a manufacturing plant in America.
• US existing home sales decreased by 0.2% to 4.00 million in August 2025, above the expected 3.96 million but below the yearly average. Housing inventory dropped 1.3% to 1.53 million units, with 4.6 months' supply, while the median price increased 2% annually.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1230 – US Aug. PCE Inflation
1400 – US Final Sep. University of Michigan Sentiment

Earnings events

• Monday: Carnival Cruise
• Tuesday: Nike, Paychex
• Thursday: Tesco PLC

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: S&P 500 −0.5%, Nasdaq 100 −0.5%, Dow −0.4% as stronger data dented hopes for near-term Fed easing. Initial jobless claims fell to 218k and Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8%, pushing yields higher and compressing rate-cut probabilities ahead of Friday’s PCE. Tech led losses: Oracle −5.6% and Tesla −4.4%. CarMax plunged 20% after weak results, while Intel jumped 8.9% on reports it approached Apple about securing an investment. Focus turns to the PCE print for confirmation of disinflation momentum.
• Europe: STOXX 50 −0.4% and STOXX 600 −0.7% as higher yields and fresh U.S. national-security probes into medical imports hit med-tech; FTSE 100 −0.4%. Siemens Healthineers fell 3.5% and Philips 3%, while autos and building materials lagged. H&M rallied 9.8% after a Q3 profit beat and better full-price sell-through. The tape tracked U.S. macro resilience and lower odds of an October Fed cut, keeping rate-sensitives under pressure.
• Asia: Regional tone mixed on Thursday closes. Hang Seng −0.1% as property and financials weighed post-typhoon and into US PCE; CSI 300 +0.6% after the PBoC conducted a CNY 600bn MLF to steady liquidity. Lenovo −4% and China Hongqiao −3.1% slipped, while BYD +1.7% outperformed on continued EU share gains. Market breadth stayed cautious into China’s holidays.

Volatility

• Volatility remains relatively muted despite sharp swings in sentiment. The VIX rose to 16.74, up 3.5%, as stocks pulled back following hotter-than-expected GDP data. Today’s focus is squarely on the US PCE inflation release, which could reset expectations on the Fed’s next steps. If PCE surprises to the upside, the dollar could strengthen, putting pressure on tech and rate-sensitive equities. If it misses, markets may lean back toward dovish pricing. Meanwhile, option market positioning continues to reflect FOMO: bullish call spreads are gaining popularity, and downside hedges remain relatively cheap.
• Expected SPX move today from options: ±35 points (~0.53%) around 6,605.

Digital Assets

• Crypto remains in consolidation mode ahead of US macro prints. Bitcoin trades near $109.3k, Ether around $3.9k, with little directional conviction after this week’s deleveraging. Spot ETFs like IBIT (−3.6%) and ETHA (−5.98%) show outflows, echoing broader investor caution. That said, institutional and legislative tailwinds are building: the CLARITY Act, stablecoin regulations, and ETF approvals are seen as key Q4 drivers.
• Analysts point to continued rotation into SOL, DeFi protocols, and chains supporting stablecoins. However, scrutiny over crypto-treasury trades is rising, following unusual price action in firms like MSTR. Watch PCE and potential fund inflows for the next catalyst.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields rose yesterday, especially around the release of the latest weekly jobless claims numbers, which suggests a firm labor market. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose 5 basis points to close at a four-week high at 3.65%. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield also poked higher and is testing the key 4.19-4.20% area that market the range low from early May to early September. A 7-year treasury note auction yesterday saw weak demand.
• The 10-year France-Germany sovereign yield spread nudged less than a basis point higher, but closed at a new highs for the cycle near 83 basis points as European yield rose yesterday. The benchmark German 10-year Bund rose two basis points to close at 2.77% yesterday, within three basis points of the 2.80% cycle high since March, when German yields surged on the anticipation of a large German fiscal expansion.

Commodities

• The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index (BCOM) is on track for its strongest monthly close in three years, delivering a 9.3% gain year-to-date. Recent strength has been concentrated in the metals sector, both industrial and precious, with prices buoyed by supply disruptions, Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over its independence, as well as rising geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West. Energy has also advanced, led by diesel, as buyers of Russian fuel face increasing pressure despite higher output from several key OPEC+ producers. Meanwhile, losses have been concentrated in softs with cocoa, sugar and coffee all trading lower on the month.
• Platinum and silver have been the standout performers this month, rising 14.5% and 11% respectively. In addition to tightening supply outlooks, both metals have drawn support from investors seeking alternatives to record-breaking gold. Silver climbed above USD 45 for the first time in 14 years, while platinum surged to a 12-year high, lifting its year-to-date gain to 74%.
• Oil is heading for its biggest weekly advance in more than three months, with WTI above USD 65 and Brent approaching USD 70. The move follows renewed pressure from President Trump on buyers of Russian energy, including Turkey and Hungary. This verbal intervention has offset OPEC+ production increases and the resumption of exports from northern Iraq following a two-year halt.

Currencies

• The US dollar strengthened sharply yesterday, especially in the wake of the strong weekly jobless claims number, which sent the greenback higher versus the Japanese yen, to nearly the psychologically important 150.00 level before consolidation back to the 149.70 area set in. EURUSD fell as low as 1.1646 yesterday before rising back toward 1.1680.
• The New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar are contending with the Japanese yen for status as weakest G10 currencies of late, with the kiwi generally winning the race to the bottom, NZDUSD hitting a new low since April overnight at 0.5756 after trading as high as 0.6000 just seven trading days ago.