Market Quick Take – 23 January 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Stocks rose in the US and Europe as tariff worries eased, Japan up and Hong Kong steady.
• Volatility: Vix lower, headline-driven risk, mild downside skew
• Digital assets: Bitcoin weak, Ethereum under pressure, IBIT & ETHA outflows
• Currencies: USD weakened sharply yesterday, JPY even weaker overnight despite hawkish BoJ.
• Commodities: BCOM hits fresh record as gold and silver surge toward USD 5,000 and USD 100, while natural gas jumps most in four years
• Fixed Income: Japan’s short yields rise on hawkish BoJ, US treasuries quiet.
• Macro: Preliminary Jan. PMI for Germany, Eurozone, UK and US

Macro headlines

• The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% as expected, but the meeting was seen as somewhat hawkish as forecasts for core inflation were raised for the next three years (year three raised to 2.1% vs. 2.0% prior) and a hawkish member dissented in favour of a rate hike. Japanese government bond yields rose to new highs at the short end of the curve as the market brought forward anticipation of the next rate hike, but the Japanese yen weakened ahead of Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s press conference late Friday in Tokyo.
• US PCE price index rose 0.2% m/m in November, consistent with October and expectations. In November 2025, goods prices rebounded 0.2%, while services growth slowed. Core PCE increased 0.2%. Annual headline and core PCE inflation reached 2.8%, aligning with expectations. The PCE index is the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
• US initial jobless claims rose by 1,000 to 200,000 for the week ending January 17th, below expectations. Continuing claims dropped by 26,000 to 1,849,000. Federal employee claims increased by 364 to 1,010 amid the government shutdown.
• Japan's inflation decreased to 2.1% from 2.9%, the lowest since March 2022. In December 2025, food inflation slowed, energy costs turned negative, and core inflation fell to 2.4%. Monthly CPI dropped 0.1%, reversing November's 0.3% gain.
• The US economy grew 4.4% annualized in Q3 2025, exceeding the 4.3% initial estimate and showing the strongest growth since Q3 2023. This was driven by stronger exports, higher consumer spending, and increased government outlays. Imports fell 4.4%, and fixed investment rose 0.8%.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0915 – France Flash Jan. Manufacturing and Services PMI
0930 – Germany Flash Jan. Manufacturing and Services PMI
1000 – Eurozone Flash Jan. Manufacturing and Services PMI
1030 – UK Flash Jan. Manufacturing and Services PMI
1545 – US Flash Jan. Manufacturing and Services PMI
1600 – US Jan. Final University of Michigan Sentiment

Earnings events

• Today: SLB
• Next Week: Monday: Ryanair, Nucor; Tuesday: LVMH, UnitedHealth, Boeing, RTX, NextEra Energy, Texas Instruments, Union Pacific, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, UPS, Seagate, Northrop Grumman, Atlas Copco; Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, ASML, Lam Research, IBM, Amphenol, GE Vernova, AT&T, Danaher, ServiceNow, Starbucks, General Dynamics; Thursday: Apple, Amazon, Samsung, Visa, Mastercard, Roche, SK Hynix, Caterpillar, SAP, ThermoFisher Scientific, KLA Corp, Blackstone, Southern Copper, ABB, Lockheed Martin; Friday: ExxonMobil, Cheveron, American Express, Verizon, Regeneron

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 6,913.35, the Dow gained 0.6% to 49,384.01, and the Nasdaq 100 added 0.8% to 25,518.35. Stocks bounced as President Trump withdrew fresh tariff threats toward Europe and signalled progress on a Greenland framework, while jobless claims held at 200,000 and inflation data broadly met forecasts. Meta jumped 5.7% as mega-cap tech led, GE Aerospace fell 7.4% after earnings despite upbeat 2026 profit guidance, and Procter & Gamble rose 2.6% as profits held up even with softer revenue. After the bell, Intel slid almost 12% on cautious guidance and supply constraints, keeping earnings in the spotlight.
• Europe: The STOXX Europe 600 rose 1.0% to 608.86, the Euro STOXX 50 gained 1.3% to 5,956.17, and the FTSE 100 edged up 0.1% to 8,626.01. Shares snapped a five-day slide after Washington cooled the tariff talk and dialled back the Greenland pressure, with banks firmer while defence lagged. Volkswagen jumped 6.4% on strong results, Telenor rose 7.0% after earnings beat expectations, Wizz Air gained 9.1% as it lifted guidance, and Essity fell 7.4% after a profit warning. Next up, investors watch the earnings calendar and any concrete EU–US trade signals.
• Asia: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.7% to 53,688.89 and Topix added 0.7% to 3,616.38, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng ended 0.2% higher at 26,629.96 and China’s CSI 300 was flat at 4,723.71. Risk appetite improved after tariff tensions eased, and Hong Kong property shares strengthened as China Vanke won creditor approval to defer part of a bond repayment. Pop Mart climbed 6.1% and Chow Tai Fook gained 2.6% as consumer names led, while investors looked ahead to Hong Kong inflation and business sentiment releases. Markets now watch whether the property relief sticks and how regional data shapes rate expectations.

Volatility

• Market volatility eased further into the end of the week, reflecting a calmer tone in equities rather than full confidence. The VIX closed at 15.64, down sharply on the day, as stocks pushed higher and near-term stress indicators such as VIX1D and VIX9D also declined. This cooling comes after President Trump softened earlier rhetoric around Greenland-related trade tensions, which reduced immediate geopolitical risk, while the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep policy unchanged removed another potential volatility trigger. That said, volatility remains headline-sensitive, with ongoing focus on geopolitics, US macro data, and upcoming earnings.
• Options-implied move: SPX weekly options suggest an expected move of roughly ±32 points (±0.46%) into today’s expiry and the week’s close, pointing to contained but not complacent risk pricing.
• Skew check (today’s expiration): today’s SPX options show mild downside skew, with at-the-money puts priced slightly richer than calls, indicating continued demand for downside protection even as volatility falls.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets continued to lag equities, with crypto sentiment remaining cautious despite calmer broader markets. Bitcoin traded around $89,500, heading for a weekly decline, while Ethereum slipped toward $2,950, underperforming risk assets. Major altcoins such as Solana and XRP also moved lower on the day, reinforcing the “wait-and-see” tone across the space. A key theme remains weak investor demand, as capital continues to favour AI-linked equities and traditional growth assets over crypto.
• ETF flows underline that caution. On Thursday, IBIT saw net outflows of roughly $22m, contributing to broader spot bitcoin ETF outflows, while ETHA recorded about $44m in outflows, keeping pressure on ethereum exposure. Regulatory uncertainty, including delays around US crypto legislation, and ongoing debate over stablecoin yields have added to hesitation. Until flows stabilise, crypto is likely to remain sensitive to risk-off headlines rather than leading risk-on moves.

Fixed Income

• Japan’s government bonds sold off at the short end of the yield curve as noted above in the wake of the somewhat more hawkish than expected Bank of Japan meeting, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield rising three basis points to a new cycle high above 1.25% as the market brought forward expectations of the next BoJ rate hikes. While odds of a March BoJ rate hike remain low, the late April meeting is now seen as more than 50% likely to deliver the next hike, with Bank of Japan Governor Ueda yet to speak late Friday in Tokyo. At the longer end of the JGB yield curve, 10-year JGB yields rebounded slightly, while the 30-year yield actually fell slightly.
• US treasuries saw very little volatility Thursday after a strong auction of 20-year notes the prior day. While the benchmark 2-year yield poked toward local highs just above 3.60% Thursday, it eased back overnight, and the benchmark 10-year yield was quiet for another session after the recent break above the key 4.20% level, trading almost unchanged near 4.24%.
• The rebound in risk sentiment saw a firming of high yield bond demand, with the Bloomberg measure of the high yield to US treasury yield spread posting a new record low since 2007 at 250 basis points Thursday, down four basis points from the prior day’s close.

Commodities

• The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is heading for another record weekly close, up 4% and marking its strongest three-week run in almost four years. While precious metals continue to do most of the heavy lifting, the energy sector also posted solid gains this week, driven primarily by a surge in U.S. natural gas prices amid an incoming and potentially disruptive winter storm. The laggards were concentrated in the softs sector, led by cocoa (-12%), followed by coffee (-2.1%) and cotton.
• In gold and silver, the big round numbers of USD 5,000 and USD 100 are now within reach after another day of strong gains. The rally is being fueled by FOMO, alongside continued focus on broader hard-asset-supportive drivers following a slight easing in U.S.–EU tensions. Central-bank demand remains firm, the dollar continues to weaken, and governments keep issuing debt with little clarity on long-term repayment. Silver demand in China remains exceptionally strong, with local futures trading at a USD 12 premium to London prices.
• Platinum, the best-performing metal this week, has gained 14% to fresh record highs, helped by its continued relative cheapness versus gold. While one ounce of gold at one point last year bought around 3.5 ounces of platinum, that ratio has now fallen to 1.86, still above the most recent low of 1.4 recorded in 2022.
• Natural gas trades back below USD 5 but remains on track for a weekly gain of more than 50%, as the largest U.S. winter storm of the season brings record-breaking cold across central and eastern regions. The freeze is sharply lifting heating demand and, with it, consumption of both natural gas and diesel.

Currencies

• The US dollar rebounded slightly in Asia’s Friday session from the broad weakness on Thursday, but EURUSD remains just below 1.1750 after rallying from 1.1670 lows on Thursday.
• The JPY was weaker despite a nominally hawkish BoJ meeting Friday in Japan, with BoJ governor Ueda out speaking at a press conference Friday as of this writing, noting at the outset that he would refrain from commenting on the yen level. USDJPY traded up in Friday’s Asian session despite the generally weak US dollar at 158.75, while EURJPY rallied to new all-time highs, hitting 186.50. AUD rose aggressively yesterday as AUDUSD made a firmer break of the prior range, pulling to a new cycle highs above 0.6850 by late Asian hours Friday after a sharply rally Thursday that saw it clearing the prior high of 0.6767.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.