Market Quick Take – 23 February 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Stocks rose in the US and Europe on tariff headlines, while Hong Kong fell as tech cooled and geopolitics stayed tense.
• Volatility: US futures softer, VIX futures up, tariff uncertainty
• Digital Assets: macro-driven weakness, whale distribution, leveraged liquidations, ETF flows divergence
• Fixed Income: US Treasuries volatile Friday on US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, yields retreated Monday in early trading.
• Currencies: US dollar weak, JPY broadly stronger after Trump announces new tariffs to replace those overruled by the US Supreme court
• Commodities: Gold and silver rally Monday on top of significant Friday rally.
• Macro events: Germany Feb. IFO Survey, US Fed’s Waller to speak

Macro headlines

• After the Supreme Court overruled President Trump’s broadest tariffs, Trump plans to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15% on a new legal basis. Concerns have emerged about potential military action against Iran amid stalled nuclear talks, with negotiations set to resume Thursday in Geneva.
• The US economy grew 1.4% in Q4 2025 according to the first preliminary estimate, far below the 3% forecast, with consumer spending slowing and government spending dropping due to the shutdown. Fixed investment increased. In 2025, the economy expanded 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024.
• The US PCE price index rose 0.4% in December 2025, above forecasts, with goods and services prices increasing. Core PCE also climbed 0.4%. Annual PCE inflation hit 2.9%, and core inflation reached 3%, both above expectations. The index is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
• The University of Michigan revised US year-ahead inflation expectations slightly down to 3.4% in February 2026, a one-year low, from 3.5%. The five-year outlook was adjusted to 3.3%, matching January's figure.
• Fed’s Hammack emphasized patience with future rate cuts despite inflation progress, citing modestly restrictive policy and economic strength. Logan pointed out tech sector uncertainty and supported steady rates amid job market stability but is unsure about reaching 2% inflation. Musalem endorsed Warsh for Fed chair, mentioned Trump's tariffs won't impact the outlook, and noted Supreme Court ruling might bring uncertainty, with the real FFR around the neutral rate.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

China’s markets are closed for Lunar New Year through today, 23 February.
0900 – Germany Feb. IFO Survey
1300 – US Fed’s Waller (voter) to speak on the economic outlook
1330 – US Jan. Chicago Fed National Activity Index
1500 – US Dec. Factory Orders
1530 – US Feb. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity

Earnings this week

• Today: Dominion Energy, ONEOK, Diamondback Energy, Kratos Defense
• Tuesday: Home Depot, Mercado Libre, EOG Resources, Leonardo SpA, American Tower Corporation, HP, Workday, Axon, First Solar
• Wednesday: Nvidia, HSBC Holdings, JX Companies, Lowes Companies, Iberdrola, Synopsys, NU Holdings, Snowflake, E.ON, Bayer, Diageo, Zoom Communications
• Thursday: Deutsche Telekom, Salesforce, Schneider Electric, Rolls Royce Holdings, Intuit, AXA, Monster Beverage, Dell Technologies, Coreweave, Rocket Lab
• Friday: BASF, Holcim, Swiss Re

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: US stocks climbed on Friday, with the S&P 500 up 0.7%, the Nasdaq 100 up 0.9%, and the Dow up 0.5%, after the Supreme Court struck down reciprocal tariffs. Markets looked through weak 1.4% GDP growth linked to the government shutdown, but they did not ignore the sequel: over the weekend President Trump announced a new global tariff by executive order, later lifting it to 15%. Alphabet rose 4% and helped the Nasdaq end a five-week losing streak, while Amazon and Home Depot also advanced as investors weighed the idea of refunds against fresh trade risk. Core PCE, the personal consumption expenditures inflation gauge, held firm at 3.0%, keeping the rates debate alive into this week.
• Europe: European stocks closed at fresh record highs on Friday, with the STOXX 50 up 1.2% and the STOXX 600 up 0.8%, as investors welcomed stronger economic data and a brief easing of trade pressure. The same Supreme Court ruling that removed earlier International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs, or IEEPA tariffs, improved the mood in trade-exposed sectors, even as the White House signaled it could come back with new tariff tools. Luxury led the charge, with LVMH up 4.4% and Hermès up 3.6%, while Air Liquide climbed 4.8% after results and better-than-expected eurozone purchasing managers’ index, or PMI, readings. The next test is whether tariff headlines or incoming data sets the tone first.
• Asia: Hong Kong stocks fell on Friday, with the Hang Seng down 1.1% to 26,413, as tech and consumer names cooled after a strong run. The Hang Seng Tech index dropped nearly 3% ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, while geopolitics also weighed after President Trump said he would decide within 10 days on potential action against Iran. Xiaomi, SMIC, Techtronic and Tencent were among the notable laggards as risk appetite weakened, even with solid Spring Festival travel demand. Property shares edged higher on hopes of post-holiday policy support, leaving traders watching both Beijing signals and the next US headline.

Volatility

• Markets start the week with a more cautious tone. US equity futures are lower, while front-month VIX futures are higher, signalling that investors are adding short-term protection. The VIX index stands at 19.09, which reflects elevated but not stressed conditions. In other words, markets are not pricing panic — but they are pricing uncertainty.
• The driver remains policy-related uncertainty around US trade measures, which has reintroduced a risk premium into global assets. With several key macro events ahead this week — including US consumer confidence, PPI and comments from policymakers — volatility is likely to stay reactive to headlines.
• SPX expected move for the week (options-implied into 27 February): approximately ±115.6 points (±1.67%), implying a range of roughly 6,794 to 7,025.
• For today’s expiry, the skew profile shows calls slightly richer than puts around current levels, which does not indicate acute downside stress into the close.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets are trading weaker in line with the broader risk tone. Bitcoin is at 65,747.98 (-2.78%) and Ethereum at 1,880.03 (-3.96%), with Solana and XRP also lower. The move appears macro-driven, reflecting softer sentiment in global risk assets rather than a crypto-specific catalyst.
• Spot ETFs such as IBIT and ETHA are not yet reflecting this move in price terms, as US equity markets are closed and ETF pricing updates during regular trading hours. For investors, flows are therefore the more meaningful signal than pre-market price changes. Recent data showed continued net inflows into bitcoin ETFs, while ethereum ETF flows have been more mixed. The key question this week is whether inflows remain stable if equity volatility stays firm.
• Crypto continues to behave as a high-beta expression of global liquidity conditions. If macro uncertainty persists, price swings are likely to remain sensitive to shifts in broader risk appetite.

Fixed Income

• The US Treasury market was roiled by the Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs on Friday, as treasuries rallied, then sold off, but ended the day with yields only slightly higher all along the curve.
• In futures markets Monday, treasuries firmed slightly after Trump announced new universal tariffs late Friday after the market closed.
• Markets were closed in Japan Monday.

Commodities

• Gold and silver firmed sharply on Friday in the wake of the US Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs and rose further still Monday in the wake of Trump’s new universal tariffs aimed at replacing the old ones. Gold rallied as high as 5,176 in Monday’s Asian session after closing last week just above 5,106, having rallied more than 100 dollars/ounce Friday. Silver traded nearly to 88.00 in Monday’s Asian session after closing Friday above 84, having rallied from 78.50 the prior day.
• Crude oil futures fell Monday after a nervous rise on geopolitical tensions linked to Iran ahead of the weekend. Brent and WTI benchmarks retreated about 70 cents Monday after closing at the highest levels since last summer on Friday, with April Brent at 71.05 and April WTI at 65.78.

Currencies

• The US dollar fell almost across the board Monday after a choppy reception of the US Supreme Court ruling striking down Trump’s global tariffs Friday, with Trump’s new 15% tariff seen as USD bearish, particularly against a hard charging Japanese yen, which rose broadly Monday even as Japan’s markets were closed for the holiday. USDJPY traded as low as 154.00 Monday after closing near 155.00 Friday before rebounding to the 154.40 area. EURUSD trades near 1.1830 in early European hours Monday after closing Friday near 1.1780.
• GBPUSD rebounded from its sell-off through the key 1.3500 area late last week, rebounding well above that level to 1.3530+ after closing Friday at 1.3480 and after a low of 1.3435 that was below the 200-day moving average near 1.3446. EURGBP is keeping traders guessing as it has so far held the line below 0.8750, a level approached and tested on multiple occasions all year. Only minor data from the UK this week , including February GfK Consumer Confidence on Friday.

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