Market Quick Take – 22 October 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Dow hit a record on earnings; Europe nudged higher on aerospace and luxury; Asia firm with Hong Kong up and Japan near records.
• Volatility: VIX in high teens. Earnings & macro in focus
• Digital assets: IBIT inflows. ETHA/alt-coins quietly trading. institutional test-phase
• Currencies: USD firm, while SEK and NOK rally against the Euro.
• Commodities: Gold and silver find fresh support in Asia after steepest selloff in years
• Fixed Income: Us yield curve flattens with 10-yea
• Macro events: US Treasury to auction 20-year notes

Macro headlines

• UK Sep. CPI out this morning at 0.0% MoM and 3.8% YoY vs. +0.1%/+4.0% expected, respectively and vs. 3.8% YoY in Aug. UK Sep. Core CPI out at 3.5% YoY vs. 3.7% expected and 3.6% in Aug, while UK Sep. Services CPI out at 4.7% vs. 4.8% expected and 4.7% in Aug.
• Trump predicted an upcoming meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, would yield a “good deal” on trade while also saying the highly anticipated talks may not happen. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet with his Chinese counterparts to discuss a deescalation of trade tensions ahead of the Trump-Xi talks
• The ECB's pre-meeting blackout begins Thursday before its rate decision. The US dollar gained on easing US-China tensions and hopes of ending the government shutdown. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier Lifeng will meet to discuss tariffs. Traders bet on policy easing by the ECB and Fed.
• Japan's exports rose 4.2% year-on-year in September 2025, the first increase since April but below the expected 4.6%. Historically, exports averaged 7.81% annually from 1964 to 2025, peaking at 89.20% in August 1974 and hitting a low of -49.40% in February 2009.
• Canada's inflation rose to 2.4% in September 2025, exceeding the expected 2.3% and marking a high since February. Gasoline deflation eased, raising transportation costs by 1.5%. Food inflation climbed to 3.8% due to higher grocery prices, especially for vegetables and sugar. Inflation increased for household operations and recreation, while mean core inflation remained at a one-year high of 3.2%.
• Taiwanese export orders surged 30.5% year-on-year to USD 70.2 billion in September 2025, well above the expected 17.8%, due to strong AI demand. Orders rose for various products, including electronics and machinery, with significant rebounds for electrical machinery and minerals. Textile orders still fell. Exports increased notably to ASEAN, the US, Japan, and Europe.
• Trump does not want to have “a wasted meeting” with Putin, the latest sign that a planned second summit between the two leaders in Hungary could be in jeopardy.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed

0600 – UK Sept CPI
1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications
1430 - EIA’s Weekly Crude and Fuel Inventory Report
1700 – U.S. Treasury to sell USD 13 billion of 20-year Notes

Earnings events

• Today: Tesla, SAP, IBM, Philip Morris
• Thu: T-Mobile, Intel, Unilever
• Fri: Procter & Gamble

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: Dow +0.5% to a record, S&P 500 0.0%, Nasdaq −0.2% as earnings did the heavy lifting. General Motors +14.9% after raising guidance, Coca-Cola +4.1% on a clean Q3 and bottling moves, and 3M +7.7% after a beat and higher outlook. Defense led: RTX +7.7% on stronger missiles and aftermarket; GE Aerospace +1.3% after lifting guidance. Danaher +5.9% on bioprocessing strength, while Warner Bros Discovery +11.0% on strategic options talk. After hours, Netflix −5.2% on a one-off Brazil tax hit.
• Europe: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1% to 5,687 and Stoxx 600 +0.2% to 573.3, with FTSE 100 +0.3%. Aerospace tracked U.S. strength as Airbus +1.8% and Safran +1.6% after upbeat GE Aerospace prints. Luxury stayed bid: Hermès +1.4%, LVMH +0.8%, Ferrari +0.5%. Stellantis jumped +4.8% on robust September sales. Novo Nordisk −1.4% after its chairman’s exit weighed on healthcare. Tone remains constructive into a crowded earnings slate, with eyes on guidance quality and holiday sell-through commentary.
• Asia: Regional risk tone improved into policy hopes. Nikkei 225 +0.3% to 49,316 as new leadership and a softer yen supported equities. Hang Seng +0.7% to 26,028 as talk of late-October U.S.–China engagement and weak China Q3 growth stoked stimulus bets. EV and supply-chain names firmed, led by CATL +2.6%, while semis rallied with SMIC +3.1%. Caution lingered as Hong Kong unemployment ticked up to 3.9% and U.S. inflation data loom.

Volatility

• The overall market tone suggests more calm than a few weeks ago, but the under-surface still carries cautiousness. The VIX (a measure of expected U.S. equity volatility) is hovering in the high teens, which is low by recent standards yet above the “quiet zone” levels seen in summer. This suggests investors are comfortable—but not unflappable. What could shake things up today? Big-tech earnings, a handful of central bank speeches, and crude oil inventory data all stand ready to inject surprise. Based on options pricing, the SPX (S&P 500 Index) is expected to move roughly ±0.4–0.5% (≈ ±30 points) into the close.
• Key risk-drivers include: earnings surprise (good or bad), unexpected macro data (inflation or jobs), and geopolitical headlines.
• In short: volatility isn’t flashing red, but it remains ready to flicker.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are treading water for now. Notably, the IBIT (bitcoin ETF) saw fresh net inflows of ~$477 million, indicating that institutional money is still testing the waters. At the same time, flows into some comparable instruments (like those tied to ETHA) are flatter, and alt-coins such as Solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) are showing little conviction beyond matching Bitcoin (BTC)’s direction. In short: crypto is in a “holding pattern” where the upside depends on fresh triggers (regulation, ETF approval, large institutional adoption), and the downside is still linked to macro risk (dollar strength, hawkish central banks).
• Bottom line: IBIT remains one to watch as a signal of bigger bets; ETHA and the broader alt-coins are quieter for now.

Fixed Income

• US treasuries yields at the front end of the curve almost unchanged as the benchmark 2-year treasury remains steady near 3.46%, while longer dated treasuries rallied again, with the benchmark 10-year treasury yield posting an intraday low below 3.95% before rebounding above 3.96%. This flattened the 2-10 spread to 50.5 basis points, its lowest since mid-September. The strength in longer-dated treasuries will be tested today as the US Treasury is set to auction 20-year notes, often one of the less popular maturities.

Commodities

• Gold and silver bounced during the Asian session after briefly extending Tuesday’s selloff, the steepest in years. The forceful correction shows how one-sided the focus had become leading to a natural reset after a powerful nine-week rally that saw gold gain 31% and silver 45%. Beyond the firmer dollar, the main catalyst was softer Indian demand in the aftermath of Diwali. Silver rebounded from the USD 47.80 area of support, with gold buyers emerging just above USD 4000. Both metals needed a correction to prevent the rally from morphing into a bubble that might later burst even more violently.
• ETFs tracking miners of gold, silver, uranium, and rare earths suffered sharp setbacks on Tuesday as the recent speculative frenzy gave way to an overdue correction, offering investors a reality check. Major gold miners fell 9.4%, silver miners dropped 11.4%, while uranium and rare earth miners declined 6.6% and 4%, respectively.
• Oil extended gains, with Brent climbing back above USD 62 after the API reported the first decline in U.S. crude inventories in four weeks and Trump reiterated that India would scale back purchases of Russian energy. Traders are also beginning to question the prevailing supply-glut narrative, as movements in the Brent and WTI forward curves remain far from levels that would typically reflect such an imbalance. Official EIA stockpile data are due later Wednesday.

Currencies

• The US dollar rallied again yesterday, taking EURUSD as low as 1.1600 before a modest rebound, while the USDJPY rally was rebuffed ahead of 152.20 yesterday before selling off to 151.50 and then rebounding to 151.80 overnight.
• The Scandinavian currencies SEK and NOK rallied yesterday, with EURSEK now pressing down below 10.93 and not far from the low since June near 10.90, while EURNOK has rejected the recent squeeze above 11.75 and has retreated as low as 11.65 this morning.

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