Market Quick Take – 02 February 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: U.S. stocks fell on higher yields, Europe rose on better growth data, Asia pulled back after a strong run.
• Volatility: VIX stable but metals sell-off adds stress, macro data and payrolls ahead
• Digital assets: Crypto remains under pressure, BTC and ETH near multi-month lows
• Currencies: US dollar has bounced back after profound recent weakness in the wake of Trump nomination Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair.
• Commodities: A historic rally across metals has turned into an equally historic rout, with silver suffering a 37% collapse and gold trading down 18% since Thursday.
• Fixed Income: US treasuries act as a kind of safe haven as precious metals crash, risk sentiment weakens.
• Macro events: US Jan. ISM Manufacturing, Australia RBA rate announcement (early Tue.)

Macro headlines

• Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Fed Chair Powell, a choice seen by markets as supporting a more disciplined and cautious approach to Fed policy easing.
• US producer prices rose 0.5% in December, surpassing expectations. Services rebounded and nonferrous metals surged, while diesel fell. Core PPI climbed 0.7%. Annual inflation remained at 3%, and core inflation increased to 3.3%, both above forecasts.
• China's Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3 in January 2026 from 50.1, missing expectations. Factory activity weakened with contracting new orders, slower output, and declining foreign sales. Input prices rose faster, selling prices increased again, and business confidence hit a six-month low.
• Gold and silver extended their historic slump with stocks, as assets that had performed the best in January came under intense selling pressure following Friday’s dramatic market reversal. Bitcoin, the laggard throughout January slumped further to a ten-month low near USD 75,000 with focus on large positions held by Micael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. and investors through ETFs.
• Taylor Rehmet, a Democratic candidate for a Texas state Senate seat in a conservative district near Dallas, won a runoff election on Saturday by more than 11 points following a 17-point loss in 2024, marking the first time since 1983 that a Democrat has held that state Senate seat. He overcame late intervention from Donald Trump in a race widely viewed as a bellwether for this year’s midterm elections.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1500 – US Jan. ISM Manufacturing
0330 – Australia RBA rate announcement

Earnings events

• Today: Palantir, Disney
• Tuesday: AMD, Merck, Pepsico, Amgen, Pfizer
• Wednesday: Alphabet, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Uber, Qualcomm, UBS, Boston Scientific, ARM Holdings
• Thursday: Amazon.com, Shell, Linde, Unilver, KKR
• Friday: Toyota, Philip Morris

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: U.S. equities fell on Friday as higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar weighed on risk appetite after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, reinforcing expectations for a more cautious approach to rate cuts. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones each fell 0.4%, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.9%, with technology, materials, and communication services leading declines. Apple edged up 0.5% on relative defensiveness, while Visa fell 2.9% and American Express slipped 1.8% as higher rates pressured consumer finance. Energy was mixed, with ExxonMobil up 0.8% and Chevron up 3.4% on firm oil prices. January still closed higher for all major indices, keeping the focus on upcoming inflation data.
• Europe: European equities ended January on a strong note as better-than-expected Eurozone growth data improved the outlook for the region. The STOXX 50 rose 1% and the STOXX 600 gained 0.6% after GDP showed the economy grew 0.3% in the fourth quarter, beating expectations and easing recession concerns. Banks and technology led gains, with Deutsche Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, ASML, and SAP rising around 2% to 4% as investors rotated into cyclicals. Adidas jumped almost 4% after reporting record 2025 revenues. Mining stocks lagged, with Anglo American, Glencore, and Rio Tinto down roughly 2.5% to 2.7% as metals exposure was trimmed.
• Asia: Hong Kong stocks fell sharply on Friday, ending a seven-day rally as U.S. futures weakened ahead of the Federal Reserve leadership decision in the United States. The Hang Seng Index dropped 2.1%, or 581 points, to 27,387, with consumer and technology stocks down more than 2%. CK Hutchison fell 4.8%, while Zijin Gold, Zhaojin Mining, CSPC Pharma, and Geely Auto also declined as risk appetite cooled. Despite the pullback, the index still gained 2.4% for the week and 6.9% for January, supported by signs of stabilization in Hong Kong’s property sector. Attention now turns to policy support, including reports that China may issue CNY 200 billion in bonds to recapitalize insurers.

Volatility

• Headline equity volatility metrics paint a calm picture, but deeper market movements tell a more nuanced story. The VIX closed at 17.44, and very short-dated implied gauges (VIX1D 16.40; VIX9D 15.69) indicate sensitivity to near-term data rather than broad panic. At the same time, precious metals have seen sharp corrections in recent sessions, with gold down materially and silver experiencing dramatic drawdowns following record highs. This metals sell-off has spilled into risk assets globally, pressuring equities and commodity markets as leveraged positions unwind and margin increases bite, adding another layer of volatility beyond traditional stock market measures.
• For the coming week, macroeconomic releases — particularly ISM manufacturing, JOLTs, ADP employment data and ultimately nonfarm payrolls on Friday — sit alongside a heavy earnings lineup, creating potential trigger points for risk sentiment to ebb and flow. Based on current option prices, the S&P 500 is expected to move about ±108 points (±1.55%) into Friday 6 February. The SPX options structure for this expiry shows a modest call-skew around the 6,900 level, suggestive of limited demand for extreme downside hedging but no outright complacency.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets extended their risk-off tone following a volatile weekend. Bitcoin drifted toward the mid-$76,000 area, while Ethereum fell sharply toward the low-$2,200s, with broad weakness across major altcoins such as Solana and XRP. Part of the pressure reflects weekend liquidations in leveraged positions, a dynamic that tends to amplify moves when liquidity is thinner.
• ETF flows continue to play an important role in shaping investor sentiment. Recent data show ongoing outflows from US spot crypto ETFs, with IBIT proving relatively resilient, while ETHA has experienced more pronounced redemptions, reinforcing the softer tone in Ethereum.
• For investors, the message is less about short-term price volatility and more about positioning. Falling prices combined with ETF outflows point to caution rather than outright capitulation. Until flows stabilise and macro uncertainty around US interest rates and liquidity conditions eases, crypto markets are likely to remain closely tied to broader risk sentiment.

Fixed Income

• US treasuries are finding support, perhaps in part on the nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, but also as risk sentiment has broadly cratered and precious metals are crashing, with the latter seen at times lately as a possible new inflation and uncertainty hedge relative to US treasuries, with that notion now firmly rejected. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield close lower on Friday and followed through another two basis points lower in Monday’s Asian session, hitting the 3.50% for the first time in almost three weeks. The 10-year benchmark yield ended Friday almost unchanged and dropped back slightly on Monday to 4.21%, nearing the important 4.20% level which was the high of the range for months late last year and into January.
• Japan’s government bonds saw a quiet session Monday, with the benchmark 2-year benchmark JGB yield over two basis points higher as the market mulls the Japanese lower house election this Sunday, while longer JGB’s were quiet Monday, almost unchanged.

Commodities

• A historic rally across precious metals turned into an equally historic rout on Friday, extending into Monday’s session as traders continued to unwind what had become an extremely crowded, one-sided trade. Silver in particular had, for months, drawn in investors, professionals, and retail participants alike, before the move turned parabolic and increasingly unhinged. That dynamic ultimately set the stage for a sharp correction, as the exit doors proved too narrow to absorb a sudden wave of forced selling. While the initial trigger was the nomination of Kevin Warsh, which helped spark a rebound in the dollar, the depth of the slump was driven by a cascade of futures selling linked to the unwinding of ETF and options positions. The risk of second- and third-round selling remains elevated, particularly with Shanghai — the main engine of recent support — seeing sharp losses, and silver futures currently limit-down and not trading.
• Oil prices slumped on spillover pressure from the rout in metals, compounded by comments from Donald Trump that Washington is holding talks with Iran. With the President facing weak poll numbers, a military escalation that risks pushing gasoline prices sharply higher appears unlikely ahead of the November midterm elections, where affordability and his time in office are set to dominate voter focus. Brent now trades below USD 66 after briefly topping USD 70 on Friday.

Currencies

• The nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh has helped support the US dollar as he is seen as a less dovish choice than the alternatives. The greenback continued its broad comeback Friday and closed last week on a high note relative to the spike lows earlier in the week after Trump’s dismissive comments about recent USD weakness. EURUSD trades just above 1.1850, near where it closed the week on Friday and relative to the 1.2081 spike high earlier in the week. USDJPY found resistance at 155.51 on Monday in the Asian session and back down below 154.00 by early European hours.
• AUDUSD trade 0.6927, one of the weaker currencies on Monday, perhaps on the ongoing correction in metals prices after record volatility in gold and silver Friday and further selling Monday. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets Tuesday and the market is leaning almost 75% in favour of the central bank hiking rates for the first time since 2023.

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