Market Quick Take – 18 February 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US ended flat on AI nerves, Europe rose on bank and healthcare gains, Asia climbed in thin Lunar New Year trading.
• Volatility: VIX steady, short-term gauge cools, Fed minutes and core PCE in focus
• Digital Assets: Consolidation, macro-driven tone, IBIT outflow vs ETHA inflow
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields rebound from key support.
• Currencies: GBP weak on soft employment data, awaits UK CPI this morning. NZD weak on dovish RBNZ.
• Commodities: Gold and silver rebound after two-day drop; crude adopts wait-and-see stance amid US–Iran standoff
• Macro events: UK Jan. CPI, US Dec. Durable Goods Orders, US Dec. Housing Starts and Building Permits,

Macro headlines

• ECB President Christine Lagarde will leave before the end of her eight-year term, according to the FT, apparently wanting to do so before the French presidential election next year as she would like French president Macron and German chancellor Merz to have the opportunity to appoint her successor. Her term was originally scheduled to end October 31, 2027.
• New Zealand’s RBNZ left rates unchanged as widely expected, but failed to adjust forecasts for the policy path as high as the market anticipated, only forecasting about a 50% chance of a rate hike this calendar year. This saw short NZ rates sharply lower and the New Zealand dollar weaker as well.
• Japan is set to invest USD 36 billion in US critical minerals and energy facilities, including USD 33 billion in an Ohio gas processing plant as the first tranche in a promised USD 550 billion investment pledge under the terms of the US-Japan trade deal.
• Japanese exports climbed 16.8% year on year in January, sharply beating market expectations and growing at their fastest rate since November 2022 as shipments to Asia and Western Europe surged
• The US and Iran made progress in nuclear talks in Geneva on Tuesday, with Tehran’s negotiators scheduled to return with a new proposal in two weeks, a cautiously upbeat assessment that suggests the chances of an imminent military clash are low.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

China’s markets are closed for Lunar New Year through Monday, 23 February.
0700 – UK Jan. CPI
1330 – US Dec. Preliminary Durable Goods Orders
1330 – US Jan. Housing Starts and Building Permits
1415 – US Dec. Industrial Production
1800 – US Treasury to auction 20-year notes
1900 – US Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes
0030 – Australia Jan. Employment Data

Earnings this week

• Today: Analog Devices, Booking Holdings, Glencore, Carvana, BAE Systems, DoorDash, Moody’s, Orange
• Thursday: Walmart, Alibaba, Nestle, Airbus, Rio Tinto, Deere, Newmont, Zurich Insurance, Constellation Energy, Southern Company, Quanta Services, Targa Resources
• Friday: Air Liquide, Warner Brothers Discovery, Anglogold Ashanti, Ango American, Danone

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: Wall Street finished almost unchanged, with the S&P 500 up 0.1% at 6,843.22, the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.1% after the Presidents’ Day break. Investors stayed cautious as “AI disruption” worries and a busy earnings week kept attention on who can defend pricing and margins ahead of the Federal Reserve minutes. Masimo jumped 34.2% after agreeing to be bought by Danaher, which fell 2.9% on deal risk and integration questions. Fiserv gained 6.9% on a report that activist Jana Partners had taken a stake, while General Mills slid 7.0% after cutting its 2026 profit outlook.
• Europe: European equities rose, with the STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 621.29 and the Euro STOXX 50 up 0.7% to 6,021.85. Germany’s DAX gained 0.8% to 24,998.40 and the UK’s FTSE 100 added 0.8% to a record 10,556.17 as investors digested UK jobs data and watched US-Iran talks and Ukraine-Russia negotiations. Banks and healthcare led the tone, and BNP Paribas rose 1.7% as the sector bounced back from recent pressure. Stock moves were mixed under the surface: Avolta climbed 5.0% after an UBS analyst upgrade, while Antofagasta fell 3.4% despite strong profits and Plus500 dropped 5.2% after news of major executive share sales.
• Asia: Asia rose in thin holiday trading, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.2% to 57,249.43 and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 9,007.00. China and Hong Kong stayed closed for the Lunar New Year, and several nearby markets also shut, which kept volumes light and made single-stock stories punch above their weight. In Japan, Tokyo Electron climbed 3.5% as chip-linked names rebounded, while SoftBank fell 2.0% as investors stayed cautious on its US energy project exposure. In Australia, National Australia Bank jumped 4.0% after reporting a 30% rise in net profit, and TechnologyOne gained 8.2% after lifting full-year guidance.

Volatility

• Volatility is calming at the surface, but the market is still clearly focused on this week’s macro catalysts. The VIX closed at 20.29, while very short-term volatility (VIX1D) eased to 16.16 and the 9-day measure (VIX9D) held firmer at 20.31. That combination typically reflects a market that feels relatively stable today, yet still wants protection into the next few sessions.
• The main drivers now are today’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s core PCE inflation data. Together, these releases can shift expectations around interest rates quickly. If inflation shows renewed pressure or the minutes signal patience on rate cuts, volatility could rise again. If the tone is softer, implied volatility may drift lower.
• SPX expected move (options-implied): roughly ±95 points (±1.39%) into Friday 20 February.
• 0DTE skew indicator (today’s expiry): puts remain priced richer than calls around the money, indicating ongoing demand for downside protection rather than aggressive upside chasing.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are drifting rather than trending, with investors waiting for clarity from U.S. macro data before taking larger directional positions. Bitcoin is trading just below $68,000, while ether is holding near $2,000. Solana and XRP are broadly stable, though performance across altcoins remains mixed.
• ETF flows continue to show a selective tone. The latest published data show IBIT recorded an outflow of $119.7m (17 Feb), while ETHA saw an inflow of $22.9m (17 Feb). This split suggests investors are not abandoning crypto exposure altogether, but are adjusting positioning rather than adding aggressively.
• Recent options flow in crypto-linked equities also points to a cautious approach. There is continued longer-term upside interest, but near-term protection remains visible. The broader message: investors still see structural potential in digital assets, but they are managing risk carefully in the short term.

Fixed Income

• Japan’s government bonds steadied Wednesday after their strong rally the day before, with the benchmark 10-year JGB yield one basis point higher at 2.145% after pushing to fresh five-week lows at 2.10% earlier in the session.
• US Treasuries sold off after short-dated treasury yields tested cycle lows, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield backing up over five basis points from Tuesday’s lows to trade back above 3.44%. The benchmark 10-year yield likewise lifted off the lows Tuesday after missing a full test of the significant 4.00% level, trading above 4.06% after a 4.016% low Tuesday.

Commodities

• Gold and silver rebounded after a two-day decline, with trading activity relatively muted as much of Asia remains closed for the Lunar New Year. Gold attracted fresh demand after holding support at USD 4,860, reinforcing USD 5,000 as the current pivot level. Silver, however, remains in a downward trend, trading around USD 10 below key resistance at USD 86. Some support has emerged from buyers focusing on the continued drawdown in COMEX inventories ahead of the March futures delivery period, which begins on 27 February.
• Crude traders have adopted a wait-and-see stance as apparent diplomatic progress in US-Iran nuclear talks has weighed on prices, with Brent – the global benchmark – drifting towards USD 67. However, the risk of sudden escalation — given the US buildup of military assets and Iranian threats — is likely to sustain a geopolitical risk premium, currently estimated at USD 3–5 per barrel.

Currencies

• The JPY failed again to press higher after its recent strengthening move as most JPY crosses backed up higher Tuesday within recent ranges. USDJPY is bottled up in the range below 154.00 after failing to press on support in the low 152.00’s, while EURJPY rejected a test of the sub-181.00 lows and backed up toward 182.00.
• USD action was muted after a modest rally Tuesday was rejected ahead of 1.1800 in EURUSD, with a 1.1805 low yielding to a bounce back to the 1.1850 area.
• GBP sold off sharply on Tuesday as the December unemployment rate surprisingly rose to 5.2%, a new cycle high versus 5.1% expected, and Jobless Claims for the month of January were higher than expected. This raises the odds of a Bank of England rate cut at the March 19 meeting, with the UK January CPI release early Wednesday a further key in that decision. EURGBP is eyeing key resistance just shy of 0.8750, while GBPUSD dipped as far as the pivotal 1.3500 level and just below Tuesday before rebounding back higher.
• New Zealand’s RBNZ held its first meeting with a press conference from new RBNZ governor Anne Breman. While the bank held back from any adjustment to the policy rate as widely expected, the market was anticipating a more hawkish adjustment higher in the policy forecast trajectory, but the RBNZ remained cautious on its eventual rate hike forecast, only raising odds slightly of a single rate hike this calendar year to about 50% probability of a single hike, preferring to remain accommodative now to allow the NZ economy to gain momentum. NZ short rates plummeted, with two-year swaps some 8 basis points lower and NZD fell sharply across the board, as AUDNZD pulled sharply higher and above 1.1780 after a 1.1680 low on Tuesday (multi-year high in that cross the recent 1.1807 level).

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