Market Quick Take – 15 January 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: U.S. shares slipped on bank earnings and tech, Europe closed at a record, Hong Kong rose again on health tech
• Volatility: near-term risks dominate volatility pricing, downside insurance still in demand despite moderate VIX levels
• Digital assets: bitcoin stabilises, ETF flows keep crypto linked to equity market sentiment
• Fixed Income: US treasuries find support on weak risk sentiment.
• Currencies: JPY edges weaker after intervention-inspired strength Wednesday. USD firms.
• Commodities: Oil and metals slip as Iran attack risk and tariff worries fade
• Macro events: US Jan Empire Manufacturing and Philly Fed Survey

Macro headlines

• U.S. producer prices rose 0.2% in November, matching forecasts. Goods prices jumped 0.9% due to higher energy costs. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.2%. Core PPI was unchanged, below a predicted 0.2% rise. Annually, producer inflation hit 3.0%, above the forecasted 2.7%, with core inflation also at 3.0%.
• Trump stated that Greenland is vital for U.S. national security and NATO, citing the "Golden Dome." Denmark and Greenland's foreign ministers met with JD Vance, while Germany plans to send soldiers to Greenland, as confirmed by multiple sources.
• Trump imposed a 25% tariff on certain AI chips, including Nvidia’s H200 and AMD’s MI325X, for national security reasons. The action aims to boost U.S. semiconductor production and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers, addressing economic and security risks.
• U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in November, the highest since July, exceeding the 0.4% forecast and rebounding from October's 0.1% decline. The growth was driven by auto sales recovery and holiday shopping, with notable gains in sporting goods, miscellaneous stores, gasoline, building supplies, and autos. Sales for GDP calculation, excluding specific categories, rose 0.4%.
• U.S. existing home sales rose 5.1% in December to 4.35 million, the highest in nearly three years, exceeding expectations. Inventory dropped 18.1% to 1,180,000, equal to 3.3 months' supply. The median price rose 0.4% to $405,400. NAR's Lawrence Yun noted improvements in the fourth quarter, with better mortgage rates and slower price growth across all regions.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0700 – UK Nov. Manufacturing Production
0700 – UK Nov. Visible Trade Balance
1000 – Eurozone Nov. Industrial Production
1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1330 – US Jan. Empire Manufacturing
1330 – US Jan. Philly Fed Survey
1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims
1530 – EIA's Natural Gas Storage Change
Fed speakers: Goolsbee (1330), Bostic (1335), Barr (1415), and Schmid (1830)

Earnings events

• Today: TSMC, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock
• Friday: Reliance Industries

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 6,926.6 and the Nasdaq Composite slid 1.0% to 23,471.8, while the Dow eased 0.1% to 49,149.6. Investors weighed early earnings, firm retail sales and softer wholesale inflation, but risk appetite stayed cautious as geopolitical headlines lingered. Banks dropped amid Trump's proposed credit card interest rate cap and company specific risks. Wells Fargo sank 4.6% on weaker revenue, Bank of America fell 3.7% despite a profit beat, and Citigroup dropped 3.3% after flagging a charge tied to its planned exit from Russia. Tech also dragged as Broadcom slid 4.2% on fresh China-related software restrictions, and attention now turns to more big-bank reports and upcoming Fed messaging.
• Europe: The STOXX 600 rose 0.2% to 611.6, while Germany’s DAX slipped 0.5% after a long winning streak. Utilities and healthcare led as investors focused on company news more than macro noise. RWE gained 2.3% and SSE added 2.0% after winning UK offshore-wind contracts, Orion jumped 12.0% on an upbeat 2026 outlook, and AstraZeneca rose 2.4% after agreeing to buy Modella AI. Next up, markets watch the next earnings wave and any signal from the U.S. Supreme Court on Trump’s tariffs.
• Asia: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.6% to 26,999, extending its run as consumer and internet shares led. This morning, TSMC reported strong fourth-quarter revenue and net income, both exceeding expectations, and guided first-quarter revenue above the average Bloomberg analyst estimate. Shares were slightly down as the company mentioned it cannot provide enough production capacity to Nvidia and Broadcom, which might be looking elsewhere. Markets now watched how chip supply chains and broader Asian risk sentiment reacted to that guidance.

Volatility

• Market volatility remains contained, but pricing shows investors are not complacent. The VIX closed at 16.75 on Wednesday, while shorter-dated measures stayed firmer, pointing to continued demand for near-term protection around macro data, earnings, and policy headlines. Skew remains elevated, signalling that downside insurance still carries a premium even as headline volatility stays moderate. Geopolitical noise and US policy uncertainty continue to sit in the background, reinforcing a “stay invested, but hedge selectively” mindset.
• SPX expected move (options-implied): markets are pricing roughly ±36 points (~±0.5%) for today’s expiry and about ±51 points (~±0.7%) into 16 January.
• 0DTE skew check: puts are still slightly more expensive than calls around the money, reflecting mild downside caution rather than outright fear.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets are stabilising, but confidence remains fragile. Bitcoin is trading around $96.5k, with ether near $3.3k, while major altcoins remain mixed, highlighting selective risk appetite rather than a broad rally. For many investors, ETFs remain the primary gateway: IBIT and ETHA both moved higher, underscoring how closely crypto sentiment is now tied to equity markets and broader risk conditions.
• The main near-term catalyst is regulatory. The US Senate Banking Committee postponed discussion of a crypto market structure bill after industry pushback, keeping policy uncertainty front and centre. That delay reduces immediate downside risk, but it also prolongs uncertainty, which may cap enthusiasm if macro conditions deteriorate.

Fixed Income

• Japan’s government bonds rallied, taking the 10-year JGB benchmark yield more than a basis nearly three basis point slower to 2.16% after the multi-decade high in the benchmark yield the prior day.
• US treasuries rallied modestly at the longer end of the curve as risk appetite suffered a setback yesterday, with the benchmark 10-year treasury yield edging lower and closing near 4.14% on Wednesday, the first close below 4.15% in 2026.

Commodities

• Commodities from crude oil to key metals, from gold and silver to platinum and copper, all slid after Trump signalled he may hold off on attacking Iran for now, and after the U.S. held off imposing tariffs on imports of critical minerals, easing a key concern that in recent months had driven unusually large flows of metal into the US ahead of a potential announcement.
• Silver saw a sharp reversal after hitting a fresh record high at USD 93.75 but has since found a bid near Tuesday’s lows around USD 86.50, potentially signalling that the momentum- and tight supply-led rally continues to attract speculators, not least in China, where local prices trade at a notably premium over those in London and New York.
• Oil prices fell for the first time in six days on easing concerns over a major Middle East supply disruption after Trump said he had been assured that Iran would stop killing protesters. While the situation remains fragile, the immediate risk premium has softened. Elsewhere, the EIA reported the biggest US crude stock build since November lifted by imports hitting a 14-month high, adding relative downward pressure on WTI versus Brent.

Currencies

• USDJPY and other JPY crosses sold off yesterday on verbal intervention against JPY weakness from Japanese officials on Wednesday, with USDJPY pushing to as low as 158.10 Wednesday before rebounding above 158.50 in Tokyo’s Thursday session. EURJPY rebounded to 184.50 from a 184.18 low.
• The US dollar was broadly firm outside of the action in USDJPY, with EURUSD testing back lower toward 1.1630 in Asia’s Thursday session.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.