APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Thu 7 Nov 2019: Master of Ceremonies… APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Thu 7 Nov 2019: Master of Ceremonies… APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Thu 7 Nov 2019: Master of Ceremonies…

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief – Happy Macro Thu 7 Nov 2019: Master of Ceremonies…

Macro 1 minute to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot

(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP, they do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations of any kind.)

To see this wk’s Macro Monday click here

APAC Global Macro Morning Brief


Happy Macro Thu 7 Nov 2019: Master of Ceremonies…

KVP always thought MC gave one viewpoint to a title, a Master of Ceremonies definitely ups the ante…

I.e. if you are an MC, your like… no biggie… If you are a Master of Ceremonies… your like… this is the Olympics! Tokyo 2020 Baby

Letters, numbers, words & phrases have the potential for great power… use them wisely. Very few people appreciate this, someone who did & still does, is Trump

Speaking of numbers, seeing a lot more chatter on the significance of USDCNH 7.00 handle break lower from earlier this wk. This morning Asia Thu we are sitting at 7.0125, after a +0.15% reversal o/n… this was post the big -0.43% move lower on Tues

The paradox is if the yuan is set to strengthen due to a potential solid & wrapped up trade deal (i.e. tariffs are taken off), it does so when we are still seeing continued signs of a slowdown in China. I.e. the stronger currency is not going to do them any favors

Still in a global world of investing & trade, almost everything comes with its set of pros & cons. There is quite a bit of divergence among analysts on the street on the direction of the currency, with a median forecast conducted by Bloomberg showing analysts at 7.15 by year end

That likely signals that most people continue to be skeptical about a deal. Think a successful deal (with tariffs eliminated – this is a key concern that Beijing has been adamant about from the very beginning) likely takes USDCNH to the 6.80 – 6.90 range, where a deal break would get us back to testing the c. 7.20 lvls we got close to previously


When we’re right, we are right. So those that attended the exclusive vip lunch that we host in Singapore will recall that we were bears to infinity on Uber just prior to its IPO debut. The stock has continues to make new lows, as we approach the end of its lock-up period

The stock closed yest at $26.94, that’s -40% from its IPO strike of $45. Lyft has pretty much fared the same down c. -40% to 42.92, from its IPO strike of $72. Zero view from KVP on the names, think from a business model perspective they need to do possibly one of two things – or hybrid of the two

1. Raise prices – which will crush revenue, lead to less drivers, yet finally to profitability

2. Go Autonomous as soon as possible – talk about consistent 5-star ratings…

3. Combination of the two…

Lastly KVP’s rocks Under Armour boxers & gym bag, but not their potential dodgy accounting – this is one to keep on the radar for the value players… end of the day, its still a global & uniquely placed brand…

Not sure at what point the name has value, yet we are c. -33% from the Jul highs with a good portion of that happening over the last few trading days, worth putting on the investigation list. Names & brands like this are always potential take-over targets  




On the trade noise, looks like things may be delayed… and venues are being considered ruled out & then considered again. Again a lot of moving parts, but this looks like a Dec play at best… Trump = Santa Rally?

for those attending the SG conference this afternoon, rumor has it there is going to be one hell of speaker line-up, awesome panel and a world-class master of ceremonies

Have an epic day everyone, do something extraordinary for someone. Like drop a massive tip to your friendly coffee maker… plus ask them to give a free coffee/tea to someone later in the day – trust KVP it feels great, he loves free coffee hats off to One-Shot




  • AU: Trade Balance, AIG Construction Index 43.9a 42.6p (so positive uptick)
  • EZ: GER Industrial Production M/M -0.3%e 0.3%p, ECB Economic Bulletin, EU Economic Forecasts ($1m bet that they don’t raise growth forecasts! 😉)
  • UK: BoE rate decision plus monetary policy report, Carney speaks at 20:30 SGT (07:30 ET) 
  • US: Weekly unemployment claims 215k e 218k p, 30yr bond auction, Consumer Credit




The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region


Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.