14fxL

Key Stories from the past week: Finding credit cockroaches

Macro
Saxo Be Invested
Saxo

Investors experienced a volatile week that exposed the vulnerability of markets near record levels. Shares were on the back foot as talk of an AI bubble and risks to the US credit market came to the fore, VIX volatility reach its highest level since April. Strength in precious metals remained with both Gold and Silver reaching record highs. Bonds and haven currencies rallied with US Treasuries adding to gains and the yen and Swiss franc strong versus the dollar.

Gold/Silver
Gold and silver rose to records as fears about credit quality in the US economy and heightened frictions between Washington and Beijing strengthened demand for havens.
The silver streak: Can it continue?

JPY
The Japanese yen rallied US dollar, with USDJPY back below key 150.00 by the end of the week. A mixture of risk-off sentiment, ongoing government coalition talks, and hawkish remarks from BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda all supporting the currency.
The Yen: What drives further weakness versus a reversal

TSMC
TSMC Q3 profit +39% to NT$452.3b, beating NT$405.5b consensus; revenue +30% on AI chip demand (Nvidia). Gross margin 59.5% vs 57% estimate. TSMC’s strong print and higher revenue outlook kept the AI demand tape intact.
AI's factory floor: Reading ASML and TSMC signals

Loan losses
US regional banking woes were reignited after Zions Bancorporation and West Alliance announced bad loans tied to fraud. Equities declined as the events add to concern about the US credit market.
Regional bank worries weigh on stocks


China Q3 GDP is released Monday, also China’s top leaders are gathering from Monday to Thursday for the ‘Fourth Planum’ to discuss development goals for the next five years.
The delayed US CPI inflation report for September is set to be released on October 24th, along with PMI data from US, EU and UK.
Earnings highlights include Netflix, GE Aerospace, GM, Coca-Cola (Tuesday). Tesla, SAP, IBM, Barclays, (Wednesday). Intel, Ford, Newmont Corp, Dassault Systems (Thursday).

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    The Fed launched a new easing cycle in late Q3. Will this cycle now play out like 2000 or 2007?
  • Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.