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Key Stories from the past week: Finding credit cockroaches

Macro
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Investors experienced a volatile week that exposed the vulnerability of markets near record levels. Shares were on the back foot as talk of an AI bubble and risks to the US credit market came to the fore, VIX volatility reach its highest level since April. Strength in precious metals remained with both Gold and Silver reaching record highs. Bonds and haven currencies rallied with US Treasuries adding to gains and the yen and Swiss franc strong versus the dollar.

Gold/Silver
Gold and silver rose to records as fears about credit quality in the US economy and heightened frictions between Washington and Beijing strengthened demand for havens.
The silver streak: Can it continue?

JPY
The Japanese yen rallied US dollar, with USDJPY back below key 150.00 by the end of the week. A mixture of risk-off sentiment, ongoing government coalition talks, and hawkish remarks from BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda all supporting the currency.
The Yen: What drives further weakness versus a reversal

TSMC
TSMC Q3 profit +39% to NT$452.3b, beating NT$405.5b consensus; revenue +30% on AI chip demand (Nvidia). Gross margin 59.5% vs 57% estimate. TSMC’s strong print and higher revenue outlook kept the AI demand tape intact.
AI's factory floor: Reading ASML and TSMC signals

Loan losses
US regional banking woes were reignited after Zions Bancorporation and West Alliance announced bad loans tied to fraud. Equities declined as the events add to concern about the US credit market.
Regional bank worries weigh on stocks


China Q3 GDP is released Monday, also China’s top leaders are gathering from Monday to Thursday for the ‘Fourth Planum’ to discuss development goals for the next five years. The delayed US CPI inflation report for September is set to be released on October 24th, along with PMI data from US, EU and UK.
Earnings highlights include Netflix, GE Aerospace, GM, Coca-Cola (Tuesday). Tesla, SAP, IBM, Barclays, (Wednesday). Intel, Ford, Newmont Corp, Dassault Systems (Thursday).

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