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Three central banks, three FX trades: CHF, SEK and NOK in focus
Key points:
- The SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank announce policy decisions within 30 minutes on Thursday, September 24, creating potential volatility in EUR/CHF, NOK/SEK and EUR/NOK.
- Policy guidance matters more than the rate decisions alone. Inflation forecasts and projected rate paths could determine which currencies outperform.
- Beyond rates, watch oil and risk sentiment. A hawkish Norges Bank may support NOK, but falling oil prices or a global risk-off move could still undermine the currency.
1. EUR/CHF: Can the franc regain momentum?
SNB decision: 3:30pm SGT
The SNB enters the meeting with its policy rate at 0% and has previously reiterated its willingness to intervene against excessive franc appreciation. The key question is whether the SNB continues to resist franc strength or becomes more comfortable with it as inflation risks evolve.
EUR/CHF has recovered significantly from its March lows, but the latest chart shows a pullback from resistance near 0.9510.
Positioning scenarios
- Dovish SNB: A lower inflation forecast or stronger intervention warning could lift EUR/CHF. Holding above 0.9385–0.9362 keeps the recovery intact, with 0.9510 the key upside level.
- Less dovish SNB or risk-off sentiment: Reduced intervention emphasis or renewed safe-haven demand could strengthen CHF. A break below 0.9385–0.9362 would expose 0.9308, followed by 0.9245.
What to watch: Whether the SNB's policy message reinforces or challenges safe-haven flows. A hawkish surprise may struggle to strengthen CHF if global risk appetite improves sharply.
2. NOK/SEK: A Scandinavian policy-divergence trade
Riksbank: 3:30pm | Norges Bank: 4pm SGT
The Riksbank enters the meeting with rates at 1.75%, compared with Norges Bank's 4.25%. The Norwegian central bank has kept the door open to further tightening, while the Riksbank has highlighted both low current inflation and the risk of renewed price pressures.
NOK/SEK has already rallied sharply and is approaching major resistance around 1.05.
Positioning scenarios
- Hawkish Norges Bank, cautious Riksbank: A higher Norwegian rate path relative to Sweden's could extend NOK strength. A sustained break above 1.050–1.057 would reinforce the bullish trend, with 1.10 a longer-term reference rather than an immediate target.
- Dovish Norges Bank, hawkish Riksbank: A lower Norwegian rate path or stronger Swedish tightening guidance could trigger profit-taking. Watch 1.018 as initial support, followed by 1.007.
What to watch: The relative change in expected policy rates, not simply which central bank has the higher policy rate.
Oil is another swing factor. A sharp fall in crude could weaken NOK even if Norges Bank sounds hawkish, while rising oil may reinforce a NOK-positive policy surprise.
3. EUR/NOK: Can Norwegian krone strength extend?
Norges Bank: 4pm SGT
Norway's policy rate remains at 4.25%, with Norges Bank acknowledging that further tightening may be necessary despite recent inflation readings coming in below its projections. The updated rate path will therefore be central to the NOK reaction.
EUR/NOK is trading near 10.80, close to its recent lows and below all three major moving averages. The technical trend continues to favour NOK, but positioning is becoming more sensitive to a dovish surprise.
Positioning scenarios
- Hawkish Norges Bank + firm oil: An upward revision to the projected rate path could reinforce NOK strength. A break below 10.6869 would extend the downtrend and bring 10.60 into focus.
- Dovish Norges Bank + falling oil: A lower rate path or greater concern about growth could trigger a NOK reversal. A recovery above 10.8456 would put 10.8987–10.9406 in focus, followed by 11.0231.
What to watch: Oil prices and European risk sentiment alongside the rate decision. A decline in oil prices could weigh on NOK, while a broader risk-off move may strengthen EUR/NOK even if Norwegian rates remain relatively high.
Bottom line
The most interesting opportunity is the potential divergence between Norges Bank and the Riksbank. NOK/SEK offers a direct relative-rate expression, while EUR/NOK adds exposure to oil and European risk sentiment.
For CHF, intervention language is crucial, but it may not be enough to prevent franc strength if global risk appetite deteriorates.
The key trading discipline is to wait for the new policy projections and the initial market reaction before chasing a breakout. With all three decisions arriving almost simultaneously, the first move may not be the lasting one.