FX Breakout Monitor: EURNOK at an all-time high
Head of FX Strategy
Summary: EURNOK cleared the local range highs with a bang today and is having a look at all-time highs today. Sterling is trading very nervously as Brexit headlines constantly shifted the odds back and forth today, not a momentum traders delight. AUDUSD looking at the lowest daily close for the cycle ahead of important Australian jobs data tonight.
The FX Breakout Monitor is back, and it is expanded with "autosignals" that show examples of how to trade new breakouts, defined as new 19-day high or low closes not preceded by a breakout in the same direction in the prior week. Click on the link below for a look at the full PDF of the table overview and the Recent New Breakouts tables. See further below for a couple of chart highlights related to today's monitor.
Today’s Breakout monitor
Sterling has broken higher in places today in intraday terms, but the action has been very choppy and treacherous for traders looking for a persistent move. More persistent over the last couple of sessions has been NOK weakness, with today ushering in a massive break lower in the currency as EURNOK cleared a well-defined range high, likely triggering strong order flows. EURNOK even had a look at the all-time highs from the global financial crisis above 10.15 today. Traders will now watch whether the move holds into the close today for follow through higher still.
Among potential breakout trades, we zero in on the Aussie, where the currency is pushing lower amid concerns that the US-China trade deal is going nowhere fast and as any consistent signs of labour market weakness will likely rekindle talk of potential QE from the RBA. Australia reports September jobs data tonight. We focus on AUDUSD below in the chart highlight, but EURAUD, as of this writing, is trading above its 19-day high close.
Today’s Breakout Highlight: AUDUSD
The lowest close for the cycle for AUDUSD is a mere 25-ish pips away at the time of writing, just above 0.6704 (surprisingly, this equates to well over a half ATR, showing just how compressed AUDUSD trading ranges have been recently). Tonight’s Australian employment data for September, could finally blast this pair out of its tight range of the last, more than two months, particularly on a highly negative surprise. A significant new low, however, would require a break of the chugging, back-filling descending envelope of price action.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Energy crisis could turn energy stocks into secular winnerWith long-term expected returns for the global energy sector close to 10%, we look at 40 stocks that could be set to cash in.
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.