FX Breakout Monitor: EURNOK at an all-time high

Today’s Breakout monitor

Sterling has broken higher in places today in intraday terms, but the action has been very choppy and treacherous for traders looking for a persistent move. More persistent over the last couple of sessions has been NOK weakness, with today ushering in a massive break lower in the currency as EURNOK cleared a well-defined range high, likely triggering strong order flows. EURNOK even had a look at the all-time highs from the global financial crisis above 10.15 today. Traders will now watch whether the move holds into the close today for follow through higher still.

Among potential breakout trades, we zero in on the Aussie, where the currency is pushing lower amid concerns that the US-China trade deal is going nowhere fast and as any consistent signs of labour market weakness will likely rekindle talk of potential QE from the RBA. Australia reports September jobs data tonight. We focus on AUDUSD below in the chart highlight, but EURAUD, as of this writing, is trading above its 19-day high close.

Today’s Breakout Highlight: AUDUSD
The lowest close for the cycle for AUDUSD is a mere 25-ish pips away at the time of writing, just above 0.6704 (surprisingly, this equates to well over a half ATR, showing just how compressed AUDUSD trading ranges have been recently). Tonight’s Australian employment data for September, could finally blast this pair out of its tight range of the last, more than two months, particularly on a highly negative surprise. A significant new low, however, would require a break of the chugging, back-filling descending envelope of price action.