Are analysts still bullish? A look at updated 2025 forecasts

Analyst targets for year-end 2025 have shifted upward—some sharply. Here’s what top institutions now expect:

These forecasts, updated between May and July, reflect growing conviction that ETF flows are sticky—and that Bitcoin is entering a new phase of institutional acceptance.

IBIT delivers what it promised—and more

IBIT, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, has become the dominant vehicle for listed Bitcoin exposure:

• It now holds over 700,000 BTC, accounting for roughly 56% of all Bitcoin held by U.S. spot ETFs
• Its assets under management exceed USD 76–83 billion, far outpacing rival funds
• IBIT has emerged as the industry benchmark, leading on both size and investor flows
• It continues to trade with tight bid/ask spreads (~2 basis points) and minimal tracking error

Since its launch, IBIT has grown from a promising newcomer to the structural anchor of listed crypto access—serving as the go-to vehicle for both institutional allocators and active investors.

Ethereum joins the stage

Ethereum is starting to catch up. After lagging for months, ETH is now trading above USD 3,000, and attention is turning toward Ethereum-linked ETFs.

The iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) has already attracted USD 4 billion in assets and carries a 0.25% expense ratio—similar to IBIT. But unlike spot Bitcoin ETFs, access to ETHA can vary by region. In some markets, it's not available to all investor types due to regulatory classification.

That said, in most regions, investors can still gain exposure to ETHA through listed derivatives, including options—offering flexibility in how they express a view on Ethereum without needing direct access to the ETF itself.

How much crypto belongs in a portfolio?

This remains one of the most discussed—and debated—questions.

Recent research continues to support a modest allocation, with most studies pointing to a 2–6% range as optimal for long-term portfolios:

• VanEck found the highest Sharpe ratio at 3% BTC + 3% ETH
• Fidelity Institutional showed that a 2–5% BTC sleeve increased retirement spending potential by up to 4%
• J.P. Morgan and adviser surveys suggest 5% is the most common model allocation
• Ric Edelman, more aggressively, argues that 10–40% might be needed to offset underexposure—though this remains a fringe view

The key takeaway? Keep it small, size by risk, and rebalance frequently. Crypto can improve diversification, but correlations often rise in moments of stress.

From ETF to ecosystem: how active investors are positioning

For those who want exposure beyond the coins themselves, listed instruments offer a wide range of strategic choices—some with direct correlation to crypto prices, others operating as high-beta beneficiaries of the broader digital asset trend.

⚠️ Availability note: Depending on your location and local regulations, not all instruments listed above may be directly accessible across our platforms (including SaxoInvestor, SaxoTraderGO, SaxoTraderPRO, and mobile apps). In many cases, however, exposure may still be possible via listed or OTC derivatives—such as options, turbo certificates, speeders, or CFDs—subject to product eligibility in your region.

The bottom line

Crypto has moved from a speculative fringe asset to a structural part of today’s investing conversation. Whether or not you believe in Bitcoin’s long-term narrative, the asset class now offers multiple ways to express a view—with varying levels of volatility, correlation, and access.

As always, sizing and risk control matter more than predictions. But if there’s one clear trend in 2025, it’s this: crypto isn’t just back—it’s being built into the future of diversified portfolios.

A follow-up piece will explore how to use options on crypto-related equities and ETFs to generate income, hedge downside, or express tactical views. Stay tuned