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Bitcoin surges past USD 120K - what top analysts see coming next
Koen Hoorelbeke
Investment and Options Strategist
Bitcoin surges past USD 120K - what top analysts see coming next
Key points
- Bitcoin broke through USD 123,000 in July, pushing to new all-time highs on strong ETF inflows and supportive U.S. policy developments.
- Top analysts now forecast year-end targets between USD 150K and 250K, citing continued institutional demand and post-halving supply effects.
- IBIT has become the dominant ETF, holding over 700,000 BTC and managing USD 76–83 billion in assets.
- Ethereum is regaining momentum, with ETH back above USD 3,000 and renewed attention on ETHA ahead of potential regulatory expansion.
- Investors now have access to a broad toolkit of crypto-linked assets, including ETFs, equities, miners, and listed derivatives—though availability varies by region.
Back in January, we reviewed the launch of the IBIT ETF and explored how analyst forecasts framed the case for crypto in 2025. At the time, projections ranged between USD 100,000 and 150,000 for Bitcoin by year-end. Six months later, Bitcoin has broken through USD 123,000, IBIT has attracted over 700,000 BTC, and Ethereum is finally stirring.
Whether you believed the thesis or stayed sceptical, crypto has once again become too big to ignore.
What’s changed since January?
In early 2025, enthusiasm around spot ETF approvals was high—but many questioned whether institutional inflows would actually materialise. They did.
Bitcoin is now up +33% since 9 January, when it traded near USD 92,000. The IBIT ETF has delivered a tight tracking profile, minimal bid/ask spreads (~2 bps), and consistently high volume. Ethereum, which underperformed in the first half of the year, is now back above USD 3,000, reawakening ahead of a possible spot ETF approval of its own.
Are analysts still bullish? A look at updated 2025 forecasts
Analyst targets for year-end 2025 have shifted upward—some sharply. Here’s what top institutions now expect:
| Firm | Target | Headline rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | USD 200,000 | ETF absorption and corporate-treasury adoption |
| J.P. Morgan | USD 150,000 | Undervalued vs. macro drivers, state-level reserves |
| VanEck | USD 180,000 | Accelerating institutional flows and regulatory progress |
| Bernstein | USD 200,000 | “Conservative” cycle projection amid strong adoption |
| Fundstrat (Tom Lee) | USD 250,000 | Post-halving supply squeeze and continued under-ownership |
These forecasts, updated between May and July, reflect growing conviction that ETF flows are sticky—and that Bitcoin is entering a new phase of institutional acceptance.
IBIT delivers what it promised—and more
IBIT, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, has become the dominant vehicle for listed Bitcoin exposure:
- It now holds over 700,000 BTC, accounting for roughly 56% of all Bitcoin held by U.S. spot ETFs
- Its assets under management exceed USD 76–83 billion, far outpacing rival funds
- IBIT has emerged as the industry benchmark, leading on both size and investor flows
- It continues to trade with tight bid/ask spreads (~2 basis points) and minimal tracking error
Since its launch, IBIT has grown from a promising newcomer to the structural anchor of listed crypto access—serving as the go-to vehicle for both institutional allocators and active investors.
Ethereum joins the stage
Ethereum is starting to catch up. After lagging for months, ETH is now trading above USD 3,000, and attention is turning toward Ethereum-linked ETFs.
The iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) has already attracted USD 4 billion in assets and carries a 0.25% expense ratio—similar to IBIT. But unlike spot Bitcoin ETFs, access to ETHA can vary by region. In some markets, it's not available to all investor types due to regulatory classification.
That said, in most regions, investors can still gain exposure to ETHA through listed derivatives, including options—offering flexibility in how they express a view on Ethereum without needing direct access to the ETF itself.
How much crypto belongs in a portfolio?
This remains one of the most discussed—and debated—questions.
Recent research continues to support a modest allocation, with most studies pointing to a 2–6% range as optimal for long-term portfolios:
- VanEck found the highest Sharpe ratio at 3% BTC + 3% ETH
- Fidelity Institutional showed that a 2–5% BTC sleeve increased retirement spending potential by up to 4%
- J.P. Morgan and adviser surveys suggest 5% is the most common model allocation
- Ric Edelman, more aggressively, argues that 10–40% might be needed to offset underexposure—though this remains a fringe view
The key takeaway? Keep it small, size by risk, and rebalance frequently. Crypto can improve diversification, but correlations often rise in moments of stress.
From ETF to ecosystem: how active investors are positioning
For those who want exposure beyond the coins themselves, listed instruments offer a wide range of strategic choices—some with direct correlation to crypto prices, others operating as high-beta beneficiaries of the broader digital asset trend.
| Category | Examples | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Spot Bitcoin ETFs | IBIT, FBTC, GBTC, ARKB, BTC, BITB, HODL | Regulated, direct exposure to BTC price—ideal for long-only portfolio allocation |
| Miners | MARA, RIOT, CLSK, HUT, BITF, CORZ, CIFR, WULF, BTDR | Operational leverage to Bitcoin; highly sensitive to hash rates and BTC margins |
| Exchanges & Brokers | COIN, HOOD, SQ, GLXY, ADE.DE | Monetise crypto trading volumes, custody, and stablecoin float |
| Treasury proxies | MSTR, TSLA, XXI, SQ, MARA, GLXY, GME, SMLR, NEXON (3659.T), CANG | Hold BTC on balance sheets; equity performance influenced by crypto sentiment |
| Futures-based ETFs | BITO, BTF | Useful for short-term exposure or tactical views; based on CME Bitcoin futures |
| Thematic crypto ETFs | WGMI, BLOK, BITQ, STCE, DAPP, FDIG, BKCH | Broad-based baskets of crypto-linked equities with varied thematic tilts |
| Hardware providers | NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MRVL, INTC | Indirect exposure via GPU and AI-chip demand—supporting mining and infrastructure |
⚠️ Availability note: Depending on your location and local regulations, not all instruments listed above may be directly accessible across our platforms (including SaxoInvestor, SaxoTraderGO, SaxoTraderPRO, and mobile apps). In many cases, however, exposure may still be possible via listed or OTC derivatives—such as options, turbo certificates, speeders, or CFDs—subject to product eligibility in your region.
The bottom line
Crypto has moved from a speculative fringe asset to a structural part of today’s investing conversation. Whether or not you believe in Bitcoin’s long-term narrative, the asset class now offers multiple ways to express a view—with varying levels of volatility, correlation, and access.
As always, sizing and risk control matter more than predictions. But if there’s one clear trend in 2025, it’s this: crypto isn’t just back—it’s being built into the future of diversified portfolios.
A follow-up piece will explore how to use options on crypto-related equities and ETFs to generate income, hedge downside, or express tactical views. Stay tuned
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This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..