Market Quick Take – 14 August 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US extends gains; Europe at 2-week highs; UK GDP in focus; mixed Asia
• Volatility: VIX steady near lows; SPX daily move ±24 pts
• Digital assets: Bitcoin >$124k; Ether near record; ETF inflows drive gains
• Fixed Income: US and European yields reverse lower while Japan’s yields rise
• Currencies: JPY leaps higher on Treasury Secretary comments on BoJ hikes
• Commodities: Crude steadies ahead of Putin-Trump talks, silver outshines gold
• Macro events: Norway Rate Announcement, US PPI, US Jobless Claims

Macro headlines

• US President Trump assured European leaders late yesterday that there would be “very severe consequences” if Putin refuses to end Ukraine war as we hopes to get Putin to agree to a ceasefire in the Ukraine war at a meeting with the Russian leader in Alaska tomorrow.
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggests the Fed’s rate should be 1.5 percentage points lower and said that the Fed likely would have cut had they known of the revised payrolls data at the July meeting. He said there are 10 or 11 candidates to succeed Chair Jerome Powell in May.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that he expected Japan to raise its policy rate to counter rising inflation, a move that prompted a sharply stronger Japanese yen overnight.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that U.S. trade officials will reconvene with Chinese counterparts within two to three months to discuss economic relations. This follows a 90-day extension of their tariff truce, preventing significant duties on bilateral goods.
• Chinese officials announced loan interest subsidies for personal and service sector loans to enhance consumption, a crucial economic driver. This initiative aims to stimulate spending and promote economic growth.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – UK Q2 GDP Estimate
0600 – UK Jun. Manufacturing Production
0600 – UK Jun. Visible Trade Balance
0600 – Sweden Jul. CPI
0800 – Norway Norges Bank Rate Announcement
0900 – Eurozone Jun. Industrial Production
1230 – US Jul. PPI
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims
1400 – US Fed’s Musalem (voter) to speak on CNBC
1430 – US Weekly Natural Gas Storage
2350 – Japan Q2 GDP Estimate

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

• Today: Applied Materials, Deere & Company, Netease, Nu Holdings, Tapestry

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: US stocks extended gains on Wednesday as traders priced in a near-certain September Fed rate cut, with the S&P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq +0.1%, and Dow +1.0%. Materials, healthcare, and consumer cyclicals led advances, while Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft slipped. Paramount Skydance surged 36.7% on a UFC rights deal, and AMD rose 5.4%. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year at 4.24%. Oil eased after the IEA cut demand forecasts, citing weak consumption. Investors now await today’s US PPI and jobless claims for fresh policy clues.
• Europe: European markets closed at two-week highs Wednesday, boosted by Fed rate-cut bets and falling energy prices. The STOXX 50 rose 1%, led by banks, luxury, and tech names like Intesa Sanpaolo, LVMH, Kering, SAP, and Prosus. Healthcare was strong, with Sanofi, Bayer, and AstraZeneca all up over 2%. TotalEnergies lagged as oil prices softened. German inflation held at 2% in July, while wholesale prices edged down month-on-month. Futures point to a softer open as traders eye UK and Eurozone GDP and corporate earnings from Aviva, RWE, and Carlsberg.
• UK: The FTSE 100 gained 0.2%, marking a third consecutive rise, supported by AstraZeneca and GSK gains over 2%. Gambling group Evoke jumped on strong earnings, while Beazley tumbled more than 10% after cutting premium growth guidance. Investors await Q2 GDP, expected to show modest 0.1% growth, alongside corporate updates from Aviva and Admiral.
• Asia: Asian markets were mixed after recent rallies. The Nikkei fell 1.4% as investors locked in profits from record highs. The Hang Seng edged 0.1% lower after four days of gains, despite Tencent nearing a 4½-year high on strong earnings. The Shanghai Composite hit a fresh 3½-year high, supported by tech and consumer stimulus measures, with semiconductor and insurance sectors leading. South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.3%, while Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.5%.

Volatility

• Market volatility remains subdued, with the VIX at 14.49, near its lowest since December 2024, as calmer headlines and strong equity momentum keep hedging costs low. Short-term gauges like the VIX1D (+6.9%) ticked up slightly, but risk pricing stays contained. SPX options imply an expected daily move of about ±24 points (~0.37%) today.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets remain strong, with Bitcoin hitting a record above $124k before easing to $121,963 (+2.2%), fueled by Fed rate-cut expectations and corporate treasury buying. Ether trades near $4,740, less than $100 from its 2021 peak, boosted by record inflows into ETH ETFs, including $501m into BlackRock’s ETHA on Aug 13. IBIT added 2.8% after $111m inflows. Altcoins advanced, with Solana +2.2% and XRP slightly lower. Crypto-linked stocks were mixed: COIN +1.4%, MSTR -1.1%, and MARA +0.9%.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields fell sharply all along the US Treasury yield curve yesterday, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield nearing the lows since may on a drop of almost six basis points to 3.67%, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield also dropped back almost six basis points to 4.23%, nearing the 4.19% level that is the range low since early May. Note US Treasury Secretary Bessent comments above.
• Japan’s short government bond yield rose overnight in contrast with US yields, with the benchmark Japan 2-year JGB yield up three basis points to close at 0.81%, while longer JGB yields also rose, with the benchmark 10-year JGB yield up almost four basis points to 1.55%, just six basis points below the cycle- and multi-year highs. Note US Treasury Secretary Bessent comments on BoJ policy above.
• European yields reversed the spike higher on Tuesday as government paper rallied, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year German Bund yield back six basis points lower and the 30-year German BUXL yield almost entirely reversing its jump to multi-year highs, reversing seven basis points to close back within the range at 3.23%.

Commodities

• Gold trades tentatively higher for a third day, with limited follow-through despite Bessent’s call for the Fed to cut rates by 1.5%. While lower borrowing costs, softer yields, and a weaker dollar typically support non-yielding assets like bullion, the market still only prices in a 25-basis-point cut next month.
• Silver has found fresh buying interest, pushing prices back toward key resistance near USD 40 and driving the XAUXAG ratio toward last month’s low below 86.
• Crude steadies near a two-month low as focus shifts from rising supply to the potential for a geopolitical premium if Friday’s talks between Putin and Trump fail to yield a Ukraine peace deal. Prices have also been pressured by the prospect of a growing supply glut, with the IEA warning it could hit a record next year, potentially weighing on prices and squeezing high-cost producers.

Currencies

• The Japanese yen strengthened sharply overnight on US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s comments on the BoJ’s likely need to hike rates to counter inflationary pressures with rate hikes. USDJPY dropped below local support in the 146.60 area, trading 146.42 this morning . The JPY was also higher across the board as short JGB yields rose in the Asian session after global government yield counterparts fell yesterday.
• The US dollar was broadly weak yesterday, though with choppy action outside the sharp drop versus the JPY.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.