Volatility kicks into gear during historic Nasdaq 100 session
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Yesterday was a historic trading session in US technology stocks with Nasdaq 100 futures down 5% before rebounding 5.8% ending the entire session higher. Volatility measured by the VIX exploded higher reaching as much as almost 39 suggesting increased nervousness. We are still not near full capitulation so traders should stay on their toes. In today's podcast we also cover commodities which have had a more rough period due to the risk-off across markets, but Ole zooms in on two markets, gold and cotton, which are doing relatively well given the circumstances. Finally, we highlight stocks to watch including Ericsson that has delivered impressive Q4 figures and then we talk about earnings releases expected today with the main focus on Microsoft reporting Q4 earnings tonight after the market close. It is also today that the Saxo Strats release their Quarterly Outlook so watch out for the publication which covers the energy crisis and how traders and investors navigate it. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
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French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.
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