SpaceX stock lands multiple bullish broker calls as shares join Nasdaq-100

SpaceX landed multiple bullish calls from analysts ahead of its inclusion on the Nasdaq-100 index (NDX) and the end of the quiet period for banks that had worked on the listing. 

Multiple brokers, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and UBS have started coverage of the stock with buy ratings. 

"SpaceX can convert energy into intelligence at scale with optionality to monetize through a range of consumer and enterprise solutions for the next era of AI… the final frontier," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note dated Tuesday, 7 July.  MS set a price target of $300 per share, one of the highest on the Street, implying almost 90% upside to Monday’s close at $160. Underlining the risks, their bear case PT is $75, while the bull case is $600 with revenues potentially hitting $319 billion by 2030 and $3.3 trillion by 2040.

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a price target of $205, with analysts citing advantages to scale across space, connectivity and AI – “with each of these markets having the potential to become multiple trillion-dollar opportunities over a 5+ year time horizon”.

RBC Capital initiated with Outperform and $225 PT. "We can appreciate timing risk associated with the company's space aspirations, but we believe sentiment will benefit from a proven track record of disruption and innovation, an almost ~$2T 2035E TAM and virtually unmatched financial resources. Moreover, we believe SpaceX will continue to benefit from its position at the center of two of the most profound investment themes of this generation: the evolution of the space-based economy and AI," the RBC analysts wrote.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives initiated SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, resting the bull case on growth in Starlink, launch services, and AI infrastructure. On Starlink he notes that it accounts for just 1% of the global telecom and broadband market, implying a huge potential addressable market. "SpaceX is one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market and is well-positioned to become a major hyperscaler with its vertically integrated platform across connectivity, launch, and AI infrastructure," said Ives.

Stifel initiated with a Buy rating and $190 PT. "Our thesis rests on three pillars — a launch-cost moat, a connectivity earnings engine, and AI optionality," analysts wrote in a note Tuesday. 

Elsewhere, JP Morgan initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a PT of $225, BofA Securities starts with a Buy rating and PT $235, while Bernstein goes to Outperform with PT of $239. Raymond James goes big and initiates coverage on SpaceX with a Strong Buy rating and Price Target of $800.

The calls come as SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100, which is expected to drive mechanical passive buying of the shares. Something like 200 investment products with $800 billion in assets track the Nasdaq-100. Although SpaceX has a market cap in excess of $2tn, the low availability of shares – only about 5% of the free float – mean it will have a weighting of only around 1% of the NDX to begin. This could increase as more shares are sold and become available to trade as lockup periods expire.