Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Macro Dragon: VP Debate = The Future President of the United States
Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
Macro Dragon: VP Debate = The Future President of the United States
Top of Mind…
- Touched on this wk in the Dragon’s New Month = New & Final Quarter = New POTUS piece
- Yes folks, there are a number of very high probability pathways of where the future POTUS is one or even both of the speakers that we will see in today’s VP debate
- Trump falls to Covid-19 – passing the Torch to Pence, who either wins or loses to Biden
- Biden wins & steps down/moves on – passing the Torch to Harris
- Few of the standouts from o/n were Powell again warning about the need for Fiscal & even more spectacularly…
- Trump calling off any stimulus discussions until after the elections – which again is something that we could see one of the many 180s that we have seen Trump pull off again & again!
- Obviously this was not something the bulls were throwing a party for, as we saw the S&P plus Nasdaq pull back by c. -1.5%.
- Lagarde will also be speaking again today (which will be 3x for the week so far) at 20:10 SGT.
- Here is an overview of VP debate schedule & format wise, should again be kicking off at the same 2100 ET Wed (0900 SGT Thu)
-
Not Enough of KVP?
- From c. 52min in KVP talking on DollarYen on Bloomberg’s Daybreak This will resonate with the 4Q20 piece, where a high conviction structural trade view from KVP’s camp is being short DollarYen, seeing 85 – 95 range by back-end of 2021 & potentially 100 to high 90s by end of 2020. Naturally this gels with the multi-year dollar bearish regime view
- Have already flagged this great podcast, Insert: Human before from a friend, mentor, great soul & clear independent brilliant thinker Chris Colbert – do please check it out, if it makes you think, please follow plus leave a 5-star review. Feel free to drop Chris a line
-
Dragon Must Reads...
- We keep hearing about “K”, catch the latest Steen’s Chronicle: Beware the implications of the K-Shape future (hint more divergence than we have seen so far!)
Why the letter K defines society, economics, politics and markets - plus how this new macro model impact the construction of your portfolio going forward.
- John Hardy dropping a roadmap US Election Primer: The Final Sprint to November 3rd
We sort through important dates in this final sprint phase of the absurdly long US presidential election cycle. Historically, we have seen significant shifts in the polling in the final weeks leading up to the election. As well, we consider factors that can change the odds between now and Election Day on November 3rd.
- Saxo’s US Election Cheat Sheet Which cuts into the three potential pathways into the elections, probabilities around them, as well as short & long-term positions across equities, bonds, commodities & currencies.
-
Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Idea
This is the way
KVP
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)