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Macro Dragon: VP Debate = The Future President of the United States
Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
Macro Dragon: VP Debate = The Future President of the United States
Top of Mind…
- Touched on this wk in the Dragon’s New Month = New & Final Quarter = New POTUS piece
- Yes folks, there are a number of very high probability pathways of where the future POTUS is one or even both of the speakers that we will see in today’s VP debate
- Trump falls to Covid-19 – passing the Torch to Pence, who either wins or loses to Biden
- Biden wins & steps down/moves on – passing the Torch to Harris
- Few of the standouts from o/n were Powell again warning about the need for Fiscal & even more spectacularly…
- Trump calling off any stimulus discussions until after the elections – which again is something that we could see one of the many 180s that we have seen Trump pull off again & again!
- Obviously this was not something the bulls were throwing a party for, as we saw the S&P plus Nasdaq pull back by c. -1.5%.
- Lagarde will also be speaking again today (which will be 3x for the week so far) at 20:10 SGT.
- Here is an overview of VP debate schedule & format wise, should again be kicking off at the same 2100 ET Wed (0900 SGT Thu)
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Not Enough of KVP?
- From c. 52min in KVP talking on DollarYen on Bloomberg’s Daybreak This will resonate with the 4Q20 piece, where a high conviction structural trade view from KVP’s camp is being short DollarYen, seeing 85 – 95 range by back-end of 2021 & potentially 100 to high 90s by end of 2020. Naturally this gels with the multi-year dollar bearish regime view
- Have already flagged this great podcast, Insert: Human before from a friend, mentor, great soul & clear independent brilliant thinker Chris Colbert – do please check it out, if it makes you think, please follow plus leave a 5-star review. Feel free to drop Chris a line
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Dragon Must Reads...
- We keep hearing about “K”, catch the latest Steen’s Chronicle: Beware the implications of the K-Shape future (hint more divergence than we have seen so far!)
Why the letter K defines society, economics, politics and markets - plus how this new macro model impact the construction of your portfolio going forward.
- John Hardy dropping a roadmap US Election Primer: The Final Sprint to November 3rd
We sort through important dates in this final sprint phase of the absurdly long US presidential election cycle. Historically, we have seen significant shifts in the polling in the final weeks leading up to the election. As well, we consider factors that can change the odds between now and Election Day on November 3rd.
- Saxo’s US Election Cheat Sheet Which cuts into the three potential pathways into the elections, probabilities around them, as well as short & long-term positions across equities, bonds, commodities & currencies.
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Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity | Process > Outcome | Sizing > Idea
This is the way
KVP
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