Macro Dragon: Saxo's 7th Annual Singapore FinTech Conference, plus Softbank, Bitcoin, Gold & Oil Macro Dragon: Saxo's 7th Annual Singapore FinTech Conference, plus Softbank, Bitcoin, Gold & Oil Macro Dragon: Saxo's 7th Annual Singapore FinTech Conference, plus Softbank, Bitcoin, Gold & Oil

Macro Dragon: Saxo's 7th Annual Singapore FinTech Conference, plus Softbank, Bitcoin, Gold & Oil

Macro 4 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Saxo's 7th Annual Singapore FinTech Conference, plus Softbank, Bitcoin, Gold & Oil


Top of Mind…

  • Summary: “SoftBank Group grabbed the attention of market participants on Friday when Financial Times revealed the Japanese investment company as a 'Nasdaq whale' placing large options bets on US technology companies. While dramatic in size and a serious style drift for the investment company the premiums and notional amount was still tiny relative to that of US retail investors which were the direct cause of last week's selloff and intraday instabilities. However, SoftBank Group's style drift requires a closer examination and we provide a take on the company's situation from a credit risk and systemic risk perspective.”
  • Markets: A few things that initially stand out – from the context of KVP’s expectations of where they were heading c. 3wks back – that are worth putting on the radar & reflecting on.

  • Bitcoin 10,300: Yes really looked like we were on the way to $!5K & not set to get back below $11000 let along $10500. End of the day, the line still holds… bullish breakout is still intact so long as we stay above $9600 – which was the close before we had the big breakout on Jul 26th. One thing KVP will add is, Bitcoin is not really giving the true story of the crypto space, a lot of tokens (especial DeFI related ones) have been on an absolute tear.

  • Gold 1925: Few folks have mentioned that they have been disappointed with gold not being bale to hold have $2000 and/or break higher. Step at a time folks. Recall that we were sideways for a c. 3-4 months & traded between the $1680 to $1750-60 range for ages. As said before, on any high conviction structural view – there is a core clip, say 50% that one sits on & there is a trading clip, that one trades around.

  • We have had a few runs to $2000 & then back to sub $1050 to $1925 lvls, monetize the vol folks… this structural bullish trend, including mini-regimes of consolidation are the norm, not the exception. Recall when we started to mention gold on the Dragon this year it was from c. $1600, give it the space & time it needs. Next likely catalyst is around fiscal stimulus – again surprise there to KVP that Reps… dragging their heels… cannot escape a blackhole people. Obviously wk ahead combination of more supply on US 10s & 30s on Thu of around $35bn & $33bn is likely to put pressure on yields, especially as it coincides with US inflation figs. Would expect that very near-term ‘overhang’ to be out the way by next wk.

  • Energy 41.92 | 38.98 : Again this was surprising to KVP, as the consolidation in oil from c. 3wks back, seemed to suggest potential breakout higher, yet we ended up pulling back – part of that potentially linked to US EQ sell-off last wk. Yet we are bulls, especially given long-term inflation concerns & the Dragon’s view that all fiscal stimulus will lead to infrastructure spend globally, which will create REAL (vs. synthetic / paper) demand… Yet this is a timing rather than directional issue. 

  • So the Dragon is still very much bullish on energy prospects particularly in the medium to long-term, would also think downside capped.


Saxo’s 7th Annual SG FinTech Conference. Fintech Unfiltered: Looking beyond the Covid-19 Storm


To Keep In Mind Today

  • JP: Average cash earnings, Household Spending, CA & Final GDP
  • EZ: GER Trade Balance, 2nd 2Q GDP Reading -15.0%e -15.0%p
  • US: NFIB Small Biz Index, Consumer Credit


Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way 



The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Support Centre
For existing clients, please click here to request support via the Support Centre.

Have a question about our products, platforms or services? Visit the Support Centre to find answers for our most frequently asked questions. If you are still unable to locate an answer to your question, you will also find contact details for your local Saxo office to speak with a representative.

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.