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Macro Dragon: Saxo's 7th Annual Singapore FinTech Conference, plus Softbank, Bitcoin, Gold & Oil Macro Dragon: Saxo's 7th Annual Singapore FinTech Conference, plus Softbank, Bitcoin, Gold & Oil Macro Dragon: Saxo's 7th Annual Singapore FinTech Conference, plus Softbank, Bitcoin, Gold & Oil

Macro Dragon: Saxo's 7th Annual Singapore FinTech Conference, plus Softbank, Bitcoin, Gold & Oil

Macro 4 minutes to read

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Saxo's 7th Annual Singapore FinTech Conference, plus Softbank, Bitcoin, Gold & Oil

 

Top of Mind…

  • Summary: “SoftBank Group grabbed the attention of market participants on Friday when Financial Times revealed the Japanese investment company as a 'Nasdaq whale' placing large options bets on US technology companies. While dramatic in size and a serious style drift for the investment company the premiums and notional amount was still tiny relative to that of US retail investors which were the direct cause of last week's selloff and intraday instabilities. However, SoftBank Group's style drift requires a closer examination and we provide a take on the company's situation from a credit risk and systemic risk perspective.”
  • Markets: A few things that initially stand out – from the context of KVP’s expectations of where they were heading c. 3wks back – that are worth putting on the radar & reflecting on.

  • Bitcoin 10,300: Yes really looked like we were on the way to $!5K & not set to get back below $11000 let along $10500. End of the day, the line still holds… bullish breakout is still intact so long as we stay above $9600 – which was the close before we had the big breakout on Jul 26th. One thing KVP will add is, Bitcoin is not really giving the true story of the crypto space, a lot of tokens (especial DeFI related ones) have been on an absolute tear.

  • Gold 1925: Few folks have mentioned that they have been disappointed with gold not being bale to hold have $2000 and/or break higher. Step at a time folks. Recall that we were sideways for a c. 3-4 months & traded between the $1680 to $1750-60 range for ages. As said before, on any high conviction structural view – there is a core clip, say 50% that one sits on & there is a trading clip, that one trades around.

  • We have had a few runs to $2000 & then back to sub $1050 to $1925 lvls, monetize the vol folks… this structural bullish trend, including mini-regimes of consolidation are the norm, not the exception. Recall when we started to mention gold on the Dragon this year it was from c. $1600, give it the space & time it needs. Next likely catalyst is around fiscal stimulus – again surprise there to KVP that Reps… dragging their heels… cannot escape a blackhole people. Obviously wk ahead combination of more supply on US 10s & 30s on Thu of around $35bn & $33bn is likely to put pressure on yields, especially as it coincides with US inflation figs. Would expect that very near-term ‘overhang’ to be out the way by next wk.

  • Energy 41.92 | 38.98 : Again this was surprising to KVP, as the consolidation in oil from c. 3wks back, seemed to suggest potential breakout higher, yet we ended up pulling back – part of that potentially linked to US EQ sell-off last wk. Yet we are bulls, especially given long-term inflation concerns & the Dragon’s view that all fiscal stimulus will lead to infrastructure spend globally, which will create REAL (vs. synthetic / paper) demand… Yet this is a timing rather than directional issue. 

  • So the Dragon is still very much bullish on energy prospects particularly in the medium to long-term, would also think downside capped.

 

Saxo’s 7th Annual SG FinTech Conference. Fintech Unfiltered: Looking beyond the Covid-19 Storm

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To Keep In Mind Today

  • JP: Average cash earnings, Household Spending, CA & Final GDP
  • EZ: GER Trade Balance, 2nd 2Q GDP Reading -15.0%e -15.0%p
  • US: NFIB Small Biz Index, Consumer Credit

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Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way 

KVP

Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy

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  • EU Army forces EU down path to full union

    With continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
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  • A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030

    In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
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  • UK holds UnBrexit referendum

    Following a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
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  • Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflation

    History tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
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  • OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve asset

    Sanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
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  • USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial system

    Following the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
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  • Tax haven ban kills private equity

    With the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.
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