The End Game has arrived
Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
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Macro Dragon: Saxo's 7th Annual Singapore FinTech Conference, plus Softbank, Bitcoin, Gold & Oil
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
Macro Dragon: Saxo's 7th Annual Singapore FinTech Conference, plus Softbank, Bitcoin, Gold & Oil
Top of Mind…
- Softbank: So lot of focus on Mayoshi-Son’s Softbank, check out the SaxoStrats take from our very own equity strategist Peter Garnry: The new world of SoftBank Group and retail options trading
- Summary: “SoftBank Group grabbed the attention of market participants on Friday when Financial Times revealed the Japanese investment company as a 'Nasdaq whale' placing large options bets on US technology companies. While dramatic in size and a serious style drift for the investment company the premiums and notional amount was still tiny relative to that of US retail investors which were the direct cause of last week's selloff and intraday instabilities. However, SoftBank Group's style drift requires a closer examination and we provide a take on the company's situation from a credit risk and systemic risk perspective.”
- Markets: A few things that initially stand out – from the context of KVP’s expectations of where they were heading c. 3wks back – that are worth putting on the radar & reflecting on.
- Bitcoin 10,300: Yes really looked like we were on the way to $!5K & not set to get back below $11000 let along $10500. End of the day, the line still holds… bullish breakout is still intact so long as we stay above $9600 – which was the close before we had the big breakout on Jul 26th. One thing KVP will add is, Bitcoin is not really giving the true story of the crypto space, a lot of tokens (especial DeFI related ones) have been on an absolute tear.
- Gold 1925: Few folks have mentioned that they have been disappointed with gold not being bale to hold have $2000 and/or break higher. Step at a time folks. Recall that we were sideways for a c. 3-4 months & traded between the $1680 to $1750-60 range for ages. As said before, on any high conviction structural view – there is a core clip, say 50% that one sits on & there is a trading clip, that one trades around.
- We have had a few runs to $2000 & then back to sub $1050 to $1925 lvls, monetize the vol folks… this structural bullish trend, including mini-regimes of consolidation are the norm, not the exception. Recall when we started to mention gold on the Dragon this year it was from c. $1600, give it the space & time it needs. Next likely catalyst is around fiscal stimulus – again surprise there to KVP that Reps… dragging their heels… cannot escape a blackhole people. Obviously wk ahead combination of more supply on US 10s & 30s on Thu of around $35bn & $33bn is likely to put pressure on yields, especially as it coincides with US inflation figs. Would expect that very near-term ‘overhang’ to be out the way by next wk.
- Energy 41.92 | 38.98 : Again this was surprising to KVP, as the consolidation in oil from c. 3wks back, seemed to suggest potential breakout higher, yet we ended up pulling back – part of that potentially linked to US EQ sell-off last wk. Yet we are bulls, especially given long-term inflation concerns & the Dragon’s view that all fiscal stimulus will lead to infrastructure spend globally, which will create REAL (vs. synthetic / paper) demand… Yet this is a timing rather than directional issue.
- So the Dragon is still very much bullish on energy prospects particularly in the medium to long-term, would also think downside capped.
Saxo’s 7th Annual SG FinTech Conference. Fintech Unfiltered: Looking beyond the Covid-19 Storm
- Folks its that time of year again, for those not in the know. Time for our world class SG FinTech conference which is entering its 7th Year.
- Fintech Unfiltered: Looking beyond the Covid-19 Storm kicks of on Wed 9 Sep 2020 from 14:00 to 17:15 SGT which should be 08:00 to 11:15 CET & 02:00 to 05:15 for the ET night owls.
- Keynote speech will be held down by SaxoStrats very own Steen Jakobsen, the CIO & Chief Economist of Saxo Bank. And the flagship panel will be hosted Saxo Bank Asia Pacific CEO, the always talented & sharp Adam Reynolds. In addition to Jakobsen on the panel, we will have StashAway’s best in the form of Co-Founder & CIO Freddy Lim. As well as the whip smart, pioneer & super successful Helen Thomas, Founder & CEO of Blonde Money.
- Adam has assured us, there is going to be a divergence of views among the three, which is always the juice in a ‘proper’ panel discussion.
- Additionally & by no means least, under the theme of “How should the wealth industry approach portfolio & risk?” we will hear from “Claus Kjeldsen - futurist and economist - CEO of the Heimdall institute” on the topic of “How to invest as a futurist”.
- Who will then join Faith Chen (CEO @ Finxexis Asset Management) & Eduard Fabian (CTO @ Razer Fintech) in a panel hosted by one of Saxo’s Champions, the always brilliant Ivan Chang, who heads up our institutional offering for the Asia Pacific.
- So please check it out here & if you have not already, do sign up.
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To Keep In Mind Today
- JP: Average cash earnings, Household Spending, CA & Final GDP
- EZ: GER Trade Balance, 2nd 2Q GDP Reading -15.0%e -15.0%p
- US: NFIB Small Biz Index, Consumer Credit
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Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the way
KVP
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Disclaimer